Fall Blues for Trudeau

Fall Blues for Trudeau

People moving toward Conservatives, but Scheer still not established

Toronto, September 21^st – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ amongst 1350 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, if an election were held today, almost four in ten (39%) say they would support the Conservatives, with more than a third (35%) saying they would support the Liberals.

The NDP is supported by almost one sixth (15%), followed by the Bloc Quebécois (5%), and the Green Party (4%), with other parties securing (1%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Conservatives include those aged 35-44 (50%), males (48%), the most wealthy (53%), living in Alberta (69%), with some college/university (42%) or a college/university degree (42%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those aged 55-64 (42%), females (39%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (39%), living in the Atlantic (49%), the least educated (37%), and those with a post-graduate degree (38%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the NDP include those aged 34 or younger (23%) and the least wealthy (28%).

Conservatives could win minority if election held today

If an election were held today, the Conservatives would unseat the Liberals as government with a 169 seat minority. The Liberals would win 130 seats, the NDP 26, with 12 for the BQ, and 1 for the Green Party.

Trudeau approval down, Scheer still an unknown

More than four in ten (43%) say they approve of Trudeau’s performance, which is down six points since August (August 24^th: 49%). Almost half (47%) say they disapprove of his performance, up five points in the same time period (August 24^th: 42%). His net favourable score drops to -4 from +7 in August, an eleven point swing (August 24^th: +7).

Only a small proportion of voters (11%) say they do not know.

Andrew Scheer sees approval amongst one quarter (26%) of voters and disapproval of almost a third (30%). His net favourable score is -1.

Andrew Scheer has failed to make an impression on the plurality, however, with almost half (44%) saying they do not know whether they approve or disapprove. 

Tom Mulcair sees approval of more than a third (37%) and his disapproval is just under 3 in 10 (29%), though over a third (34%) say they do not know about his performance. His net favourable score is +9.

Trudeau still seen by plurality as the best PM

Despite the dip in his popularity overall, more than a third (34%) see Trudeau as the best candidate for Prime Minister. Andrew Scheer is seen by 2 in 10 (20%) as the best PM, and Tom Mulcair is favoured by just over 1 in 10 (12%). 

“Trudeau enters the fall legislative session with his popularity slipping. The primary beneficiary of Trudeau’s decline is Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Scheer is still a significantly unknown quantity to the plurality of voters, however, and must further differentiate himself from Trudeau to solidify his recent gains.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.