Gap Between Second-Place Liberals and Leading Conservatives Widens

April 14, 2019 @ 6:59 AM | Filed under: National

Gap Between Second-Place Liberals and Leading Conservatives Widens

Conservatives would secure majority if election held today

Toronto, April 9^th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1634 Canadian voters, with those decided and leaning, 4 in 10 (42%) say they would support the Conservatives, with a third (29%) saying they would support the Liberals and a tenth (12%) supporting the NDP.

1 in 10 (9%) support the Green Party and few support the BQ (6%), the People’s Party of Canada (2%), or another party (1%).

Respondents most likely to support the Conservatives include males (51%), live in the Prairies (Alberta 67%, Manitoba/Saskatchewan 64%), are between the ages of 45-54 (48%), the least educated (51%) and earn between $80,000 to $100,000 (47%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals are those who live in Ontario (36%), those aged 35-44 (34%), 55-64 (33%), or 65 and over (35%), females (35%), those earning $20,000 to $40,000 (31%) or $100,000-$250,000 (31%), and those with post-graduate degrees (39%).

If an election were held today, these results suggest the Conservatives would win a majority government of 192 seats. The Liberals would serve as the official opposition with 105 seats. The BQ would secure 23 seats, the NDP 16 seats, and the Green Party with 2 seats.

1 in 3 say Scheer would make the best Prime Minister

A third (30%) say Andrew Scheer would make the best Prime Minister regardless of which party they plan to vote for. A quarter (26%) say Justin Trudeau, 1 in 10 (10%) say Elizabeth May and a similar proportion say (7%) Jagmeet Singh would make the best Prime Minister.

1 in 4 (27%) of respondents say they don’t know.

6 in 10 disapprove of the job Trudeau is doing as Prime Minister

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Justin Trudeau is doing as Prime Minister, 6 in 10 (60%) disapprove, while about a third approve (30%), and 1 in 10 (10%) don’t know. The Prime Minister has a net favourable score (approve-disapprove) of -30.

4 in 10 disapprove of the job Scheer is going as leader of opposition

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Andrew Scheer is doing as the leader of the opposition, 4 in 10 (40%) disapprove, while a third (31%) approve, and a third (29%) don’t know. Andrew Scheer has a net favourable score (approve-disapprove) of -9.

4 in 10 don’t know if they approve or disapprove of Singh as leader of the NDP

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Jagmeet Singh is doing as leader of the NDP, 1 in 3 (35%) disapprove, 1 in 4 (25%) approve, and 4 in 10 (40%) don’t know. Jagmeet Singh has a net favourable score (approve-disapprove) of -10.

4 in 10 approve of May as the leader of the Green Party

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Elizabeth May is doing as the leader of the Green Party, 4 in 10 (38%) respondents approve, a quarter (24%) disapprove, and another 4 in 10 (38%) don’t know. Elizabeth May has a net favourable score (approve-disapprove) of +14.

Is Canada better or worse than in 2015?

When asked if Canada is doing better or worse than it was 4 years ago, over half (BTM2: 57%) stated it was worse, with 2 in 10 (22%) saying it is ‘a bit worse’ and 1 in 3 (35%) saying it’s ‘much worse’.

4 in 10 (TOP2: 43%) say Canada is doing better than 4 years ago, with less than a third (30%) saying it was ‘a bit better’ and a tenth (13%) saying it’s much better.

The economy is the most important issue regarding the upcoming election

%	Feb 27 – 28, 2019	April 3 – 6, 2019
Sample	1301	1634
Economy	26	28
Environment	15	21
Healthcare	17	13
Taxes	12	12
Education	8	7
Immigration	10	5
Housing	4	5
Public Safety	3	3
Something else	6	6

1 in 4 (28%) respondents say the economy is the most important issue in the upcoming election.

Respondents most likely to say the economy is the most important issue are those who live in Alberta (59%), are between the ages of 45 to 54 (37%), male (34%), earn between $80,000 to $100,000 (39%) and have some college or university education (31%).

1 in 5 (21%) say the environment is the most important issue and 1 in 10 say it is healthcare (13%) or taxes (12%).

1 in 6 say healthcare or the economy is the second most important issue

1 in 6 say healthcare (17%) or the economy (16%) are the second most important issues.

Respondents most likely to say healthcare is the second most important issue are those who live in Ontario (21%), female (22%), earn between $60,000 to $80,000 (20%) or have completed college or university (19%).

1 in 7 said taxes (14%) was the second most important.

1 in 10 said the environment (11%) or education (11%) is the second most important issue with a few stating housing (6%), immigration (6%), public safety (4%) or something else (2%).

“The Conservative lead over the Liberals has widened as the challenges plaguing the government are beginning to take their toll,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “With the exception of Elizabeth May, none of the Federal leaders has a positive net favourable score, which suggests people aren’t particularly impressed with most of their options, right now.”