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Toronto, May 5th, 2022 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ on May 4th of 2117 eligible Ontario voters, amongst those decided and leaning, 37% say they support the Progressive Conservatives (PCs), 29% support the Liberals, 26% support the New Democratic Party (NDP), 4% support the Greens, and 4% support another party.
Current seat projections suggest PCs are on track to secure 68 seats, enough to form a majority government, with the NDP to secure 35 seats, the Liberals to secure 20 seats, and the Greens to secure 1 seat.
Gender differences
Males are significantly more likely to support the PCs than females, with 46% of males and 29% of females supporting the PCs. Likewise, females were more likely to support the Liberals (33% vs. 24%), the NDP (30% vs 21%), and the Greens (5% vs. 3%) than males. Males, however, were more likely indicate that they would support another party than females (5% vs. 3%).
Age differences
Those over the age of 45 are also most likely to vote PC, with 43% of voters between 45 and 54, 40% of voters between 55 and 64, and 38% of voters 65 and older supporting the PCs.
Those under 34, however, are most likely to vote NDP, with 38% of voters indicating they support the party. Those 35 to 44 support the PCs and NDP almost identically, with 32% indicating they support the PCs and 31% indicating they support the NDP.
Regional differences
In Eastern Ontario, the PCs have the lead with 34% of the vote, followed by the Liberals (29%) and NDP (29%), and the Greens (3%).
In the GTA 416 area, the PCs have the lead with 35% of the vote, followed by the Liberals (32%), the NDP (27%), and the Greens (3%).
In the GTA 905 area, the PCs have the lead with 38% of the vote, followed by the Liberals (30%), the NDP (24%), and the Greens (3%).
In the southwestern Ontario region, the PCs have the lead with 38% of the vote, followed by the NDP (27%), the Liberals (23%), and the Greens (8%).
In the Northern Ontario region, the PCs have the lead with 37% of the vote, followed by the Liberals (29%), the NDP (27%), and the Greens (4%).
One-third of voters think Doug Ford would make the best premier
When asked regardless of which party you would vote for, who would make the best premier, 37% of voters chose Doug Ford, followed by Andrea Horwath (22%), and Steven Del Duca (17%).
Job approval of party leaders
When asked whether they approve or disapprove of the job Doug Ford is doing as premier, 35% of respondents said they approved. When asked whether they approve or disapprove of the job Andrea Horwath and Steven Del Duca are doing as leaders of their respective parties, 29% approve of Horwath, and 17% approve of Del Duca.
The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 2117 randomly selected eligible voters across Ontario. The poll was conducted on May 4thth, 2022. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample and regional results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.
This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at one point in time. The poll was sponsored by Forum Research Inc. as a public service. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms.
Forum Research follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
