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Toronto, May 16th, 2022 – A random
sampling of public opinion was taken by The Forum Poll™ from May 13th
to 15th in eight ridings that were swing ridings in the 2018 Ontario
election. Approximately 200 eligible voters were surveyed per riding.
Amongst those decided and leaning, current seat
projections suggest PCs are on track to secure three new seats, all from the
NDP, and maintain one current seat. The Liberals are expected to claim two seats
from the Conservatives and maintain two seats. None of the eight swing ridings
are expected to go to the NDP.
Brampton Centre- Toss up: NDP leaning to
Conservative
In a tight race, NDP incumbent Sarah Singh is behind
Conservative candidate Charmaine Williams by a small margin, with Singh
expected to take 35% of the vote and Williams to take 39%.
Brampton North- NDP to Conservative
Conservative candidate Graham McGregor is
expected to take Brampton North with 40% of the vote, with the runner up being Liberal
candidate Harinder Malhi (30%).
Brampton West- Toss up: Conservative leaning to
Liberal
In a tight race, Conservative incumbent Amarjot
Sandhu is behind Liberal candidate Rimmy Jhajj by a small margin, with Sandhu
expected to take 39% of the vote and Jhajj to take 41%.
Don Valley West- Remains Liberal
Kathleen Wynne’s former riding is expected to
remain Liberal, as Stephanie Bowman is expected to win by a strong margin with
46% of the vote. Mark Saunders-Conservative candidate and former Toronto Chief
of Police- is expected to be the runner up, with 32% of the vote.
Eglington-Lawrence- Conservative to Liberal
Conservative incumbent Robin Martin is expected
to lose to Liberal candidate Arlena Hebert by a substantial margin, with Martin
expected to take 26% of the vote and Hebert expected to take 61%.
Scarborough-Guildwood- Remains Liberal
Liberal incumbent Mitzie Hunter is expected to
hold on to this riding with a strong lead, with 47% of the vote. Conservative
candidate Alicia Vianga is expected to be the runner up, with 33% of the vote.
Scarborough- Rouge Park- Remains Conservative
Conservative incumbent Vijay Thanigasalam is
expected hold on to this riding with a strong lead, with 41% of the vote.
Liberal candidate Manal Abdullahi is expected to be the runner up, with 29% of
the vote.
York South-Weston- NDP to Conservative
NDP incumbent Faisal Hassan is expected to lose
to Conservative candidate and Ford family member Michael Ford by a large margin.
Ford is expected to take 44% of the vote, with the runner up being Liberal
candidate Nadia Guerrera (27%).
The poll was conducted by Forum Research with
the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of randomly
selected eligible voters across Ontario. The poll was conducted on May 13th
to 15th, 2022. Results based on the total sample are
considered accurate +/- 7% for a sample of 200 and +/- 9% for a sample of 100, 19
times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample and regional
results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.
This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but
rather captures opinion at one point in time. The poll was sponsored by Forum
Research Inc. as a public service. With offices across Canada and around the
world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading
survey research firms.
Forum Research follows the CRIC Public Opinion
Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
