Liberals close gap in Whitby-Oshawa. Conservatives with strong lead in Yellowhead.

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Liberals close gap in Whitby-Oshawa

Conservatives with strong lead in Yellowhead

TORONTO, November 11th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 811 voters in the federal riding of Whitby-Oshawa and 406 voters in the riding of Yellowhead, in which by-elections will be held on November 17, the Liberals are closing in on the Conservatives in the Ontario riding, while, in Alberta, they are in distant second place, along with the NDP.


In this riding, the Conservative nominee, Whitby mayor Pat Perkins, has just more than four tenths of the vote (44%) to 4-in-10 for her Liberal opponent, Celina Caesar-Chavannes (40%) and this is technically a tie at this sample size. NDP candidate Trish McAuliffe has a voter preference share of about one tenth (12%). Caesar-Chavannes has tightened the gap in her favour from one third two weeks ago (October 27 - 32%), while Perkins' share has not shifted (41% on October 27). Perkins is favoured by the oldest (48%) and the wealthy ($80K to $100K - 62%). Caesar-Chavannes has appeal among the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 45%). Of note, one half of past NDP voters will support her (52%), as will close to one fifth of past Conservative voters (17%).

While Pat Perkins' awareness has remained stable and high (82% on October 27, 86% now), her approval among these voters is also stable (57% two weeks ago, 60% now). Celina Caesar-Chavannes, on the other hand, has seen her awareness almost double in the past two weeks (from 44% to 70%), while her approval has remained high among those aware of her (69% then, 68% now). Trish McAuliffe has seen her awareness increase slightly (from 42% to 54%), while her approval has declined slightly (from 61% to 53%).


The Conservative candidate, Jim Eglinski, has what amounts to an insurmountable lead in this long time Conservative riding (62%), compared to the vote share of his two competitors, Ryan Maguhn of the Liberals (16%) and Eric Rosendahl of the NDP (12%). One tenth will vote for another party (10%). Eglinski's vote is common to the oldest (69%), females (68%) and the wealthier ($80K to $100K - 72%). The Liberal vote is common to Gen X (45 to 54 - 21%), females (19%) and the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 24%). The NDP vote is common to the youngest (20%), males (15%) and the least wealthy (22%). The Conservative vote is stickiest, in that more Conservatives will vote their party (84%) than will Liberals (74%) or New Democrats (67%).

Eglinski has awareness levels about twice the other two candidates (Eglinski - 58%, Maguhn - 33%, Rosendahl - 34%), and higher approval among those aware (73%, 59% and 35%, respectively).

We identified an upside for Caesar-Chavannes after the last poll, and she appears to have made the best of it, boosting her awareness, which usually leads to an improvement in approval, unless your awareness comes from the police blotter. In Yellowhead, on the other hand, it’s all blue. Nothing to see here,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.