All tied up in Whitby-Oshawa
Second place Liberals surge in in
16th, 2014 – In a pair of random samplings of public opinion among
919 voters in the federal riding of Whitby-Oshawa, and 311 in Yellowhead, where
by-elections will be held on Monday, November 17, the Liberals and
Conservatives are tied in the Ontario riding while the second place Liberal
candidate has surged in Alberta.
Candidate Celina Caesar-Chavannes has just less than half the vote (45%) to
just more than 4-in-10 for her Conservative opponent, former Whitby mayor Pat
Perkins (42%). In comparison, five days ago, candidate results were reversed,
but similarly close, with the Conservative at close to half (44%) and the
Liberal at 4-in-10 (40%). The NDP candidate, Trish McAuliffe has just one tenth
of the vote now (10%), and the Green Party has a very small share (3%). About
one fifth of those who voted Conservative in the last federal election will
vote Liberal today (18%), while more than 4-in-10 past New Democrats will as
well (42%). Few past Liberal voters will vote for another party.
Conservative candidate Jim Eglinski has one half the votes (51%), this is down
from two thirds five days ago (November 11 - 62%). At the same time, the
Liberal candidate, Ryan Maguhn, has seen his share increase from one seventh
five days ago (16%) to almost a quarter the day before the vote (24%). The NDP
share for candidate Eric Rosendahl, has not changed (November 11 - 12%, today -
13%). More than a tenth will vote for another party (13%).
“Both of these results are very troubling for the federal
Conservatives. In Ontario, they're tied in a seat held by one of their most
popular ministers, and there appears to be an uprising happening in one of the
safest Conservative seats in the country. Neither of these are good signs for
the government in the coming election campaign,” said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at email@example.com or at (416)