PCs remain tied in Ontario
Liberal minority seen
TORONTO December 20th, 2014 –
In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1058
Ontario voters, equal proportions, just more than a third, will vote for the
Liberals (35%) or the PCs (36%), and this is very similar to results noted last
month (November 29, Liberals, PCs - 37% each). The NDP will take about one
fifth of the vote (20%) just more than last month (November - 17%). Few will
vote Green (7%) and, especially, for other parties (2%).
Liberal minority seen
If these results were projected up to seats
in a 107 seat Legislature, the Liberals would capture a minority of 52 seats,
to 37 for the PCs and 18 for the NDP, and this is similar to the projections
noted last month (November, 52, 38, 17 respectively).
Wynne's favourables down, Horwath and Wilson unchanged
Premier Kathleen Wynne enjoys the support of
just more than a third of Ontario voters (37%), compared to 4-in-10 last month
(42%) and close to half the month before (October - 46%). In contrast, Andrea
Horwath’s approval (35%) is very similar to last month (33%) and she is now
tied with the Premier. Jim Wilson, interim leader of the PCs receives an
approval rating of just one fifth (22%) and this is consistent with previous
months. In terms of net favourable scores (approve minus disapprove), Horwath (-1)
and Wilson (-2) lead the Premier (-10).
Elliott first choice for leader among PCs, MacLeod strong second
While Christine Elliott leads
in preference for a new PC leader among both the general public (20%) and even
more so among PC voters (29%), and no other contender is chosen by as many as
one tenth, Lisa MacLeod comes close (9% among PC voters, 7% among the general
public). Close to 3-in-10 say none of the available choices would be best (27%
among the public, 14% among PC voters) and fully one third do not know (33%
public, 29% PC voters). When voters are asked their second choice for leader,
however, MacLeod is the top pick, amongst all voters (21%) and especially among
PC voters (25%), compared to one fifth for Christine Elliott (19% among both
public and PC voters). In total, just more than a tenth are undecided or
unimpressed (11% and 14%, respectively) and somewhat fewer PC voters will claim
none of the listed leaders is appropriate (10%). MacLeod is also the leader
among all candidates for third choice (general public - 18%, PC voters - 17%).
things are quiet on the government front with an election at least 3 years
away, the big story is the Progressive Conservative leadership race, which is
currently Chris Elliott's to lose. Lisa MacLeod, on the other hand, appears to have
considerable upside as the consensus choice for second place in this race, and
with a preferential ballot, this is a very strong position to be in," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at email@example.com or at (416) 960-9603.