Federal Liberals continue to dominate
NDP still bleeding
March 16th, 2016 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by
the Forum Poll™ among 1567 Canadian voters, close to one half will vote Liberal
if the election were held today (46%), while just more than a third would vote
Conservative (34%). Just one tenth will vote NDP (12%), and few will vote Green
(3%), Bloc Quebecois (4%) or for another party (1%). These findings are in
contrast to last month, when the Liberals were very slightly higher in voter
preference (February 18 - 49%) and the Conservatives were very slightly lower
(February 18 - 32%).
are popular with the oldest (50%), females (51%), mid income groups ($40K to
$60K - 52%), in Atlantic Canada (60%), mothers (53%) and the best educated
(post grad - 52%).
draw the votes of younger voters ((35 to 44 - 39%), males (39%) rather than
females (28%), the wealthiest (43%), in Alberta (58%), Anglophones (40%) rather
than Francophones (16%) and among university graduates (37%).
NDP vote is common to the youngest (15%), the least wealthy (15%, often a proxy
for youth), in Quebec (16%) and BC (21%) and among Francophones (15%).
note, of those New Democrats voters from the most recent election, more than a
third would now vote Liberal (36%).
Liberal to win close to super majority
If these results are projected up to the
338 seat House of Commons, the Liberals would capture very close to two thirds
(64%) of the seats, or 215, to 111 for the Conservatives. The NDP would take
just 11 seats, the Greens one and no other party would seat a member.
Leader approvals steady, Trudeau down
Well more than one half the voters approve
of the job Justin Trudeau is doing a Prime Minister (54%), and his net
favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a healthy +19. This is down
slightly from last month, when his approval was closer to 6-in-10 (February 18
- 57%) and his net was higher (+23). Approval of the Prime Minister is almost
unanimous among Liberals (91%), but is also characteristic of 6-in-10 NDP
voters (57%), and this is just slightly less than approve of the party’s own
leader (Tom Mulcair - 67%).
Ambrose’s approval is steady at 3-in-10 (29%), just slightly less than her
party’s vote share (34%), and her net score is a neutral 0. This hasn’t changed
since February 18 (28% approval, -3 net). Approval of Ambrose among
Conservative voters is at one half (53%), while 3-in-10 don’t know enough about
her to judge (30%).
Mulcair has the approval of about one third of voters (35%), and a net
favourable score of a neutral +1. This is similar to his approval last month
(36%). Mentioned above, Mulcair’s approval among his own party’s voters is
about two thirds (67%), but this is well down since last month (74%).
Trudeau four times more likely to be
seen as best PM
Four-in-ten voters think Justin Trudeau
makes the best Prime Minister (43%), and this is similar to his party’s vote
share (46%). One quarter of this proportion opt for Rona Ambrose (13%) or Tom
Mulcair (10%). Close to one fifth see none of the contenders as fit for the job
(18%). Just one third of Conservative voters think Rona Ambrose would make the
best PM (37%), while as many as 3-in-10 New Democrats think Justin Trudeau is
the best at the job (30%), just fewer than the proportion who think their own
leader, Tom Mulcair, would be best (46%). As it stands, Trudeau is the only
leader with more than 50% support in his own party.
the pomp and circumstance of last week’s state visit to Washington, it appears
the Prime Minister is settling down to earth a bit in the voters’ eyes. His
vote share is off a tick, as is his approval. Nonetheless, he performs at his
own party’s level of voter preference, which is a good thing strategically. Rona Ambrose is polling at the same level as her party too,
and this is as good as it gets for her, as she is firmly in second place. The
real crisis case here is Tom Mulcair, while he outperforms his party three to
one in approval compared to voter preference, his approval among his own
partisans has been slipping. This must be a concern with a leadership vote
coming up, as is his party’s currently dismal showing in our poll,” said Forum Research
President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and
founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
or at (416) 960-9603.