Lead Conservative Leadership Race
Clement preferred by Conservative voters
In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1345 Canadian voters, one
tenth each selected Maxime Bernier (11%) and Tony Clement (10%) from the list
of five currently declared candidates for the Conservative Party leadership.
The leading choice made is “someone else” (28%) and as many as 4-in-10 don’t
offer an opinion (40%). Michael Chong is third choice (6%), and few select either
Kellie Leitch or Deepak Obhrai (3% and 2%, respectively). Bernier is the prohibitive favourite in
Quebec (29%) but has relatively little support elsewhere. By contrast, Tony
Clement has less prominent, but more evenly distributed support.
supporters, however, Tony Clement clearly leads among the five (18%), followed
by Maxime Bernier (10%). Fewer are unable to choose a candidate 27%).
Among the small
sample of those who claim to be Conservative Party members (n=99), and thus
have an actual say in the leadership contest, Maxime Bernier leads (14%),
followed by Tony Clement (12%) and Kellie Leitch (7%). “Someone else” is still
the favoured choice of 3-in-10 (30%), but, once again, there are fewer “don’t
knows” than among the general population (27%).
“When we subtract
the bright shiny objects like Peter MacKay and Kevin O’Leary from the equation,
the Conservative race becomes clearer. A preference measure at this stage of
the campaign is more a name recognition exercise than anything else, but,
nonetheless, Maxime Bernier has done a very successful job of differentiating
himself with some interesting policy. If Tony Clement is the establishment
candidate, Bernier may be seen as the radical in this race. We have to keep in
mind, though, that close to a third of the electorate, and the party, is
waiting for someone else to support for leader" said Forum Research
President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
email@example.com or at (416) 960-9603.