Three parties tied in Alberta

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Three parties tied in Alberta

Razor thin Wildrose majority seen

TORONTO April 9th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1661 Alberta voters, almost exactly equal proportions, about 3-in-10, will vote for the Wildrose Party (30%), the New Democrats (28%) or the PCs (27%) in the election scheduled for May 5. On this sample size, this is a virtual three way tie.

Wildrose is favoured by Gen X and Boomers (45 to 64 - 36%), males (35%) rather than females (24%), mid income groups ($60K to $80K - 36%), in Calgary and central Alberta (35% each) and in Southern Alberta (40%). One fifth of past PC voters will vote Wildrose this time (21%).

The PC vote is characteristic of the oldest (33%) and the least wealthy (35%). Just one half of past PC voters will vote for the party this time around (47%).

The NDP vote is common to younger voters (25 to 34 - 39%), the less wealthy and the wealthier ($20K to $40K and $80K to $100K - 34% each) and in Edmonton (40%). Close to one quarter of past PC voters will vote NDP this time around (22%).

Bare majority seen for Wildrose

If the results shown here are projected up to an 87 seat Legislature, the Wildrose Party would take a bare majority of 44 seats, to 23 for the PCs, 15 for the New Democrats and 5 for the Liberal Party.

Prentice’s favourables very negative, Notley’s high, others largely unknown

Fewer than a quarter of Alberta voters approve of the job Jim Prentice is doing as premier (22%), and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a truly awful -41, by the far the lowest we have ever recorded. Rachel Notley is approved of by more than 4-in-10 for her job as NDP leader (42%) and her net is a very positive +21. Other candidates do not draw high levels of approval, but are also not well-known (Brian Jean - 28% approve, net +5, David Swann - 25% approve, net -7, Greg Clark, - 16% approve, net -6).

"The Alberta electorate is difficult to poll because they take every political development personally, and change their allegiances as the targets of their frustrations change. The fact that Wildrose leads now doesn’t mean they will prevail on election day. The most interesting finding here is the strong performance of the Alberta NDP," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.