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Wynne Liberals on
Track to Lose Party Status in 2018
Currently trending to win only 7 of 122 seats
Toronto, March 30th
– In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 884
Ontario voters, amongst those decided and leaning, the PCs (43%) hold a 15-point
lead over their nearest rival – the NDP (28%). The Liberals (19%) are 24 points
back of the leading Progressive Conservatives. The Green Party sits at (8%).
The PCs are close to
their February support level, down one point (44%: Feb 16), while the NDP is up
three points (25%: Feb 16), and the Liberals have dropped 5 points (24%: Feb
Progressive Conservatives have commanding leads over their nearest rival in
four of six regions, Toronto (PC 47% - NDP 24%), Eastern Ontario (PC 43% -
Lib/NDP 24%), 905 (PC 47% - NDP 31%), and Southwestern Ontario (PC 42% - NDP
29%). The PCs are statistically tied with the NDP in North Eastern Ontario (PC
34% - NDP 31%).
The Liberals who hold
the most seats in Toronto and the 905, but are, at present, displaying low
levels of support: (19%) in Toronto and (12%) in the 905.
PC majority, NDP opposition, Liberals third party, without party
If an election were
held today the PCs would win a majority government with 86 seats. The NDP would
win 29, and the Liberals just 7, not enough for official party status within
This projection sees
an increase of 2 seats for the PCs (84: Feb 16) and the NDP (27: Feb 16), at
the expense of the governing Liberals who are down 4 (11: Feb 16).
Andrea Horwath currently the most approved leader
Kathleen Wynne sees
has an approval of (12%) and disapproval (79%), and her net favourable score
(approve minus disapprove) worsens to -67 (-66: Feb 16).
The plurality of
voters “do not know” what they think of Patrick Brown (44%). (27%) approve and
(29%) disapprove, which increases his net favourable score to -2. (-3: Feb 16).
Andrea Horwath sees
the highest approval amongst the three leaders, with (36%) approving, and (30%)
disapproving. Over a third (34%) of respondents do not offer an opinion on her
leadership of the NDP.
No leader seen as best choice to be premier
A plurality of
respondents, almost a third, selected none of these (30%) when asked who would
make the best premier. Brown (23%) and Horwath (22%) were tied behind none,
with Kathleen Wynne at just (9%), below “do not know” at (15%).
“Support for the
Liberals has declined precipitously both in Toronto and the 905, which has them
teetering on the brink of losing party status. Even though Kathleen Wynne is a
fierce campaigner, and could never be fully counted out, the Liberal budget
needs bold ideas that resonate with a lot of Ontarians for the Liberals to have
any hope of re-election,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research.
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
email@example.com or at (416) 960-9603.