Forum Most Accurate Firm in Predicting Elections

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Forum Most Accurate Firm in Predicting Elections

Forum had the most accurate prediction for the 2015 Federal Election and 6 provincial elections

TORONTO, July 2nd, 2017 – Among all polling firms attempting to predict vote outcome, The Forum Poll proved to be the most accurate in the 2015 Federal Election and in six of the last fourteen provincial elections.

No other polling firm as consistent as The Forum PollTM

In the May 30th election in Nova Scotia, The Forum Poll was the most accurate firm polling the election by far. Not only was it the most accurate in predicting the overall vote share result with a deviation of (1.0%), it was also the most accurate in predicting the overall seat count with a deviation of only (.4) seats.

In the BC election of May 9th, 2017, The Forum Poll was the second most accurate firm polling the election, with a microscopic .68 percent deviation. While a number of pollsters attempted to project the outcome of the election, Forum is the only firm that correctly predicted the minority government, with a seat projection deviation of only 1 in an 87-seat legislature.

The Forum Poll was the third most accurate firm polling the 2016 Manitoba election, held on April 19th. The Forum Poll was the only firm to supplement its election prediction with seat projections, which was accurate to 1.2 seats, in a 47-seat legislature.

Of the four firms polling the Saskatchewan election of April 4th, 2016, Forum was the third most accurate, with an average deviation of 1.1%, only two-tenths of a percentage point behind the leading result. In a clear validation of The Forum Poll’s seat projection methodology, in Saskatchewan was completely accurate: 51 seats for the Saskatchewan Party and 10 for the NDP, which matched the actual result.

Out of all the polling firms tracking the 42nd Canadian general election, Forum has proven to be the most accurate. Forum successfully predicted the election outcome within 0.7% average deviation. Furthermore, Forum was the only firm to predict a Liberal majority government giving the Liberal party 40% of the vote, and 171 seats in the October 18th final report. When it comes to sample size and margin of error, Forum predicted the outcome within a margin of error of +/- 3%.

In a field of eight polling firms, the Forum Poll™ was fourth most accurate in predicting the outcome of the Alberta provincial election of May 5, 2015. Forum’s Interactive Voice Response (IVR) polling methodology again proves to be a precise tool for measuring public opinion, accurately predicting that the NDP would form a majority government.  This prediction was first made on April 22.

In the Sept. 22nd New Brunswick provincial election Forum accurately predicted the results within our margin of error. The final poll results found that the Liberals and PCs were all tied up, but the Liberals managed to pull ahead and win a small majority. The final poll results are within our margin of error (2.7%) of the final results (total deviation was 2.1%).

Among the seven polling firms who predicted the 2014 Ontario Election, only Forum and one other correctly predicted a Liberal majority. Forum predicted the Liberals would capture 41% of the vote; the actual results (39%) fell within Forum’s margin of error (MoE was ±3%). Forum Research was the only firm to predict the Liberal vote within the margin of error.

The Forum Poll was the most accurate firm in predicting the 2014 Quebec election with an average deviation of 1.17%. Out of the six firms who polled for the election, Forum was the only one to predict a Liberal majority government. Most firms called for a Liberal minority in Quebec.

In a triumph of electoral polling, three competitive firms arrived at very similar and very accurate predictions for the outcome of the Nova Scotia provincial election of October 8th, 2013. Forum Research was the second most accurate, with a total deviation of 1.6%, compared to 0.4% for Abacus Data and 2.4% for Corporate Research Associates (CRA).

In the BC election held in May 2013, nine different polling firms attempted to predict the election turnout. Forum was the most accurate of the nine with a deviation of 1.6 across all parties, while the least accurate was Justason with a deviation of 5.4. Forum was the only firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government.

In the September 2012 election in Quebec three of four polling firms accurately predicted the election outcome, while EKOS was off by 4.1. Forum, Leger and CROP all were under 2 total percentage point deviation off across all parties.

After the Alberta provincial election, it is clear The Forum Poll™ conducted on April 22nd detected a last minute voter swing, and predicted the final election results with greater accuracy than other pollsters. Overall deviation of the poll’s findings from the actual election results across all parties was 2.7– with the furthest in the pack, Abacus, deviating by 4.7.

The interactive voice response (IVR) poll conducted by Forum Research on November 5th predicted the outcome with the greatest accuracy of all firms covering the Saskatchewan election. Overall deviation of the poll’s findings from the actual election results across all parties was 0.4, with the next closest firm deviating by 1.5 -- and the furthest in the pack, Praxis, deviating by 2.6.

It was clear the interactive voice response (IVR) poll conducted by Forum Research on Oct. 3rd and 4thpredicted the Ontario election outcome with absolute accuracy. Overall deviation of the poll’s findings from the actual election results across all parties was a marginal 1.9%, with the next closest firm deviating by 4.7% -- and the furthest in the pack, IPSOS-Reid, deviating by 11.3%.

In a ranking of polling firms, Forum is most accurate

When ranking the polling firms based on deviation The Forum PollTM was the most accurate. The Forum Poll proved to be the most precise in the 2015 Federal Election and in six of the last fourteen provincial elections.

 “Our record in predicting the outcome of the 2015 Federal Election and in Canadian Provincial elections is unmatched, with our proprietary Forum Poll IVR polling methodology proving its accuracy again and again. As we continue to refine our techniques, and prove our methodology works, we will continually put our methods to the test, which is why we’ve predicted twice as many elections in the last 8 years as our nearest competitor,” said Forum Research president Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.