The Forum PollTM Predicts Ontario Election
Forum offered the most accurate seat prediction by
far
TORONTO, June 8th, 2018 – Among all
polling firms predicting the outcome of the 2018 Ontario provincial election,
no firm offered a more accurate seat projection than Forum, whose average seat
deviation of .8 represents an average of fewer than one seat.
That level of precision was more than double that
of the next best prediction.
Of the 11 firms predicting overall vote share,
Forum was the third most accurate, with an average deviation of less than one
percent, 0.9%.
It’s worth noting that amongst the 11 firms
polling the Ontario election, each of the three most accurate firms used
interactive voice response (IVR) methodologies and random digit dialing and
were the only firms within 1% deviation of the actual result. Each of the eight
less accurate firms had an online panel component in their methodologies.
“Public opinion polling isn’t solely about
getting the numbers right. It’s a fundamental component, to be sure, but it
isn’t the only one; knowing what the numbers are saying is just as important,” said Forum Research president Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff. “That’s why Forum always supplements its vote predictions with
seat projections: because not only are we able to collect accurate data, we’re
also able to interpret that data, and effectively apply it to the real world.”
