Public Safety to
Factor into the Vote of 3 in 4 Torontonians
Toronto, August 2nd, 2018 – In a random sampling of
public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 2144 Toronto voters, three-quarters
(TOP2: 74%) say that public safety will be important to their vote, with 4 in
10 (42%) saying it will be very important.
One-fifth (BTM2: 21%) say that it won’t be important to their vote.
Few either said they did not know (4%) if it would be important or
said they don’t plan to vote (1%).
Respondents most likely to say that public safety will be important
to their vote include those aged 55-64 (79%) or 65+ (79%), females (79%), the
least educated (77%) or with a college/university degree (74%), living in North
York (76%) or Scarborough (79%), and earning $20,000-$40,000 (77%),
$40,000-$60,000 (77%), $60,000-$80,000 (77%), or $80,000-$100,000 (75%).
More than 4 in 10 (46%) who said that public safety would be
important to their vote, and said they felt unsafe living in Toronto,
identified gun crime as the cause.
Three-quarters
feel safe in living Toronto
Living in Toronto feels safe for three-quarters (TOP2: 74%) of
Torontonians, with a third (36%) saying they feel very safe.
One quarter (BTM2: 26%) say they do not feel safe living in Toronto,
with 1 in 10 (11%) saying they don’t feel safe at all.
Respondents most likely to say they feel safe living in Toronto
(TOP2) include those aged 65+ (81%), with a college/university (77%) or
post-graduate degree (78%) and living in the Former City of Toronto (80%), East
York (77%), or North York (77%), and earning $80,000-$100,000 (87%).
Respondents most likely to say they do not feel safe living in
Toronto (BTM2) include those aged 34 and younger (28%) or 55-64 (30%), the
least educated (35%), living in York (35%), and the least wealthy (34%) or
earning $20,000-$40,000 (36%).
Gun
Crime a fear
Respondents who said that they do not feel safe living in Toronto
were asked a follow up question probing why that might be.
The plurality (43%) said it was because of gun crime. One-fifth
(20%) said it was because of gang activity, and one-tenth (13%) said it was due
to roads or traffic.
Another reason was chosen by 1 in 10 (9%), while few attributed it
to living in a bad neighbourhood (5%), identified as a victim of crime or as
one who knows a victim of crime (5%), city size (3%), or sexual harassment
(2%).
More than 8 in 10 feel safe in their
neighbourhood
(TOP2: 84%) of respondents
said they feel safe in their local neighbourhood, with half (53%) saying they
feel very safe.
Only one-sixth (BTM2: 16%)
said they do not feel safe in their local neighbourhood.
Respondents most likely to
say they feel safe in their local neighbourhood (TOP2) include those aged 65+
(89%), with a college/university (87%) or post-graduate (88%) degree, and
living in the Former City of Toronto (88%).
Respondents most like to
say they do not feel safe in their local neighbourhood (BTM2) include those
aged 34 and younger (21%) or 55-64 (20%), the least educated (26%), and living
in North York (18%), York (20%), or Scarborough (18%).
Opinion divided on what, if anything,
could improve public safety
Opinion on the subject of
what would improve public safety the most is mixed.
One-quarter (25%) said that
tougher restrictions on firearms would improve public safety the most, while
one-fifth (19%) said it was better mental health treatment.
Another fifth (17%) said
more social programs for at risk youth.
1 in 10 (11%) say improved
collaboration between communities and police would be the best improvement to
public safety, while a similar proportion (9%) said
it would be improved police
presence throughout the city.
1 in 10 (7%) also said that
expanded use of surveillance technology or (7%) another reason would improve it
the most.
Few (5%) thought the
solution was more money for police.
Torontonians have strong confidence in
the Toronto Police Service
Three-quarters (TOP2: 77%)
say they have confidence in the police, with more than a third (37%) saying
they have a lot of confidence.
One-fifth (BTM2: 20%) said
they don’t have confidence in the police, with 1 in 10 (8%) saying they had no
confidence at all.
Few (3%) said they do not
know.
Half think banning handguns in Toronto
will reduce gun violence
Half (TOP2: 50%) say
banning handguns in Toronto will reduce gun violence in the city, with
one-fifth (18%) saying it will reduce gun violence a lot.
4 in 10 (38%) said a
handgun ban won’t reduce gun violence, with one-fifth (20%) saying it won’t
reduce gun violence at all.
Few are familiar with the Toronto
Anti-Violence Intervention Strategy
Only a third (30%) are
aware of TAVIS, the Toronto Anti-Violence Intervention Strategy, with 1 in 10
(11%) saying they are very aware.
More than two-thirds (70%)
say they are not aware of TAVIS, with half (53%) saying they are not at all
aware.
Almost three-quarters think there have
been more shootings in 2018
7 in 10 (70%) think 2018
has had more shootings than 2017, while about one-fifth (18%) said there’s been
about the same number.
About 1 in 20 (4%) said
there’s been fewer shootings, and about 1 in 10 (8%) said they did not know.
Tory Approval
Respondents most likely to
say they approve of Tory include those aged 65+ (66%), females (61%), those
with a post-graduate-degree (62%), and the most wealthy (71%).
8 in 10 (TOP2: 81%) of
those that approve of Tory say they feel safe living in Toronto, and 9 in 10
(89%) feel safe in their local neighbourhoods.
The plurality of the people
that approve of John Tory, but also say they don’t feel safe living in Toronto,
say that gun crime (42%) is what is making them feel unsafe.
Those that approve of John
Tory are more likely than average to feel unsafe due to roads or traffic (18%).
Respondents most likely to
say they disapprove of Tory include those aged 35-44 (33%), males (30%), living
in Etobicoke (32%), and the least wealthy (34%) or earning $20,000-$40,000
(36%).
Respondents that disapprove
of Tory are less likely to feel safe living in Toronto with only 6 in 10 (TOP2:
60%) saying they feel safe, and (BTM2: 40%) 4 in 10 saying they do not.
Three-quarters of those
that disapprove of Tory (TOP2: 73%) say they feel safe in their local
neighbourhood, with a quarter (BTM2: 27%) saying they do not.
Respondents that say they
disapprove of John Tory, but also say they don’t feel safe living in Toronto,
say that gun crime (42%) is what is making them feel unsafe. But these
respondents are more likely than average (26%) to say gang activity is what is
making them feel unsafe.
“In the wake of much
publicized incidents in the city, public safety is top of mind for many
Torontonians, and may influence the ballot of almost three-quarters of voters,”
said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “But opinion on how to
improve public safety is divided, with no consensus on a path forward. Voters
may gravitate toward a mayoral candidate that has a clear and cohesive plan
toward keeping them safe, but thus far, no campaign has seized the issue. How the
candidates approach public safety, whether it be proposals for gun control, social
programs, or something else, could offer voters a window into the type of government
each candidate aspires to run."
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
