DETAILED FINDINGS

INCIDENCE OF HAVING ONE OR MORE SYMPTOMS CONSISTENT WITH COVID-19 HAS DECLINED SINCE LAST WEEK

  In the second wave of interviewing for a new poll conducted jointly by Forum Research and Mainstreet Research among 4260 randomly selected Ontario households on April 19, about one in seven reported at least one of seven listed symptoms of COVID-19 (15%). This represents a decline from last week (April 11/12 - 19%). The symptoms listed were a new fever (2% this week, 3% last week), cough (4% this week and last), headaches (7%, down from 10%), sore throat (5% now and then), diarrhea (4% now, 5% last week), loss of taste or smell (2% both weeks), or shortness of breath (2% this week, 3% last week).

INCIDENCE OF KEY SYMPTOMS (FEVER, COUGH, SHORTNESS OF BREATH) HAS ALSO DECLINED IN ONE WEEK

  Three of the seven listed symptoms are seen as key indicators; fever, cough, and shortness of breath. Together, incidence of having one or more of these three symptoms in the household is one in twenty (5%), and this is about half the rate noted last week (8%).

INCIDENCE OF HAVING BEEN TESTED FOR COVID-19 HAS MORE THAN DOUBLED IN ONTARIO

  One in twenty households have had a member tested for COVID-19 by the end of last week (5%). This number closely matches the reported actual penetration of testing in Ontario as of April 12 (4%). This represents a cumulative increase in incidence from 2% having been tested by the end of last week (2% actual penetration). Among those reporting any symptoms, 1-in-10 have been tested (9%), while among those with the three key symptoms, close to one fifth have had a test (17%), and these numbers are up from 5% and 10%, respectively. Of those tested, more than one fifth (23%) are still awaiting results, up from one seventh last week (15%).

...OF THOSE, FEWER THAN ONE FIFTH HAVE TESTED POSITIVE THIS WEEK

  Among the very small group of households that report having been tested for COVID-19, just less than a fifth report a positive test (17%), and this is stable since last week (15%). This may be more common in single person households, in those with less formal education and among the lowest income households (caution: small sample sizes). Among the total population, just more than one half of one percent have been tested (0.7%). Among those with any symptoms, close to half have received a positive result (45%), up from one third last week (32%), while among those with the three key symptoms, slightly more have a positive result (49%, up from 39%).

ONE THIRD HAVE A HEALTH CONDITION WHICH MIGHT AGGRAVATE COVID-19 AND THIS IS STABLE SINCE LAST WEEK

  More than one third of Ontarians report an underlying health condition which might aggravate a COVID-19 infection (32%, relatively stable from 37% last week), and this is most likely to be asthma (22% among those reporting a condition) followed by diabetes (21%) a lung condition (16%) or a heart condition (16%).

ONE FIFTH STILL REPORT BEING "EXTREMELY/VERY STRESSED" EMOTIONALLY

  One fifth of Ontario households say their level of emotional stress is "extremely/very stressed" (18%, compared to 20% last week).

ONE FIFTH CONTINUE TO REPORT BEING "SOMEWHAT/VERY PESSIMISTIC" ABOUT THE FUTURE

  One fifth of Ontarians say they are "somewhat/very pessimistic" about the future (18%, compared to 22% last week).

AVOIDING "SOCIAL DESIRABILITY BIAS"

  In order to avoid "social desirability bias", or the impulse to give a socially acceptable answer, researchers often ask how "people in the neighbourhood" behave, as a proxy for respondent behaviour.

WIDE MAJORITY CONTINUE OBSERVING SOCIAL DISTANCING AND STAYING HOME

  The very wide majority of Ontario households are observing social distancing (85% reported of neighbours, compared to 86% last week) and are staying home (91% this week and last).

ALMOST ALL STILL APPROVE OF SOCIAL DISTANCING AND STAYING HOME

  Virtually all Ontarians approve of social distancing (96% this week, 97% last week) and staying home (94% this week, 95% last week).

"Compared to last week this wave of polling shows a decrease in the proportion of households reporting symptoms of COVID-19. At the same time, symptomatic households are reporting testing at twice last week's rate, consistent with Ontario's recent expansion of COVID-19 testing. These findings are encouraging, although it is too early to conclude that the symptomatic curve is being flattened. There continues to be much room for expansion of COVID-19 testing among community-dwelling people with symptoms in Ontario" said Dr. Lauren Lapointe-Shaw of the findings of this survey. Dr. Lapointe-Shaw is supporting this project by sharing her clinical and research expertise to ensure results are directly relevant to public health administrators and other policymakers.

 MEDIA CONTACTS

William Schatten, CAIP

Vice President

Forum Research

(416) 960-1310

wschatten@forumresearch.com

Quito Maggi

President

Mainstreet Research

(416) 570-3762

quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

Dr. Lauren Lapointe-Shaw, MD, PhD

Assistant Professor of Medicine

University of Toronto

lauren.lapointe-shaw@uhn.ca

@lapointeshaw

 BACKGROUND

This poll represents the second Ontario wave of an unprecedented collaboration between two of Canada's leading market research and public opinion polling firms, Forum Research and Mainstreet Research. These two firms have come together to demonstrate proof-of-concept of a nationwide COVID-19 symptoms screening poll, conducted by telephone, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, as an effective method of measuring prevalence and location of people with symptoms of COVID-19 infection, and identifying clusters, or potential "hot spots" before they become too advanced to manage.

"Symptom surveillance will provide a better understanding of the scale and evolution of COVID-19 in Canada. This is because symptoms start 1-2 weeks before test results, and at present many people with symptoms cannot access testing," said Dr Lauren Lapointe-Shaw, when asked about the efficacy of this methodology.

There are key advantages to this methodology:

                - Based on a random probability sample

                - Projectable to the general population

                - Extremely robust sample sizes

                - Conducted in real time

                - Regular tracking, ongoing reporting, dashboard presentation

                - SMS text messaging included in sampling scheme

                - Interactive functionality allows targeted messaging

                - Eliminates self-selection bias

                - Limits social desirability bias

                - Cost effective

Our methodology captures an extremely robust probability sample, from which statistically valid projections can be made, while the freshness of the data, which can be gathered nightly and reported on a dashboard the next day, ensures key decisions can be made based on real time data. SMS text messaging is included in the data collection protocol. Other benefits include interactive functionality missing in web-based applications, and the elimination of any self-selection bias

This methodology has already been pilot-tested in two municipalities in Canada, the City of Brampton and the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (Fort MacMurray), on very large samples, on March 30.

PARTICIPANTS IN THE STUDY

  With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms, having been the only poll to correctly call a Liberal majority in 2015. Forum Research is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and the Canadian Research and Insights Council (CRIC).

  Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research provides accurate snapshots of public opinion, predicting the majority NDP government in Alberta, the 2018 Ontario election and a CAQ majority win in the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research is a member of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) and the Market Research Intelligence Association (MRIA) and meets international and Canadian publication standards.

 Lauren Lapointe-Shaw, MD, PhD, is an Assistant Professor and Clinician Scientist in the Department of Medicine at the University of Toronto, and a Staff General Internal Medicine Physician at the University Health Network. She was previously awarded a CIHR Fellowship Award and CIHR-IHSPR’s Rising Star Award for her doctoral thesis in Clinical Epidemiology and Healthcare Research. Her research is broadly focused on measuring the quality of healthcare and the effects of health policy on patient outcomes. 

METHODOLOGY

THIS POLL

 Polling across Ontario was conducted by Mainstreet Research, on April 19, among a randomly selected sample of 4260 Ontario residents. Respondents were interviewed by landline and cell phone. Data was tabulated by Forum Research. Polling was conducted by Interactive Voice Response (Smart IVR) and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5%, nineteen out of twenty times asking. Sample is segmented by 14 Local Health Integrated Networks (LHINs) at approximately 300 interviews each. Margin of error on individual LHIN samples is plus or minus 5.7%, nineteen out of twenty times asking.

 Where appropriate, data have been weighted to ensure that data matches the actual population profile according to the latest Statistics Canada data. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.