Hung Parliament Seen
In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1694 Canadian
voters, more than one third (36%) will vote Liberal if the election were held
today, compared to 3-in-10 who will vote Conservative (30%). These findings
represent a slight decrease in the Liberal vote share since the last time we
polled (April 30 - 39%), but stability for the Conservatives (30% then and
now). The NDP now command just less than one quarter of the vote (23%) and this
represents a slight increase from April (20%). Few vote Bloc Quebecois (6%),
Green (5%) or for any other party (1%). The Conservative vote is common to the
oldest (36%), males (34%) and those in the prairies (41%) and Alberta (47%).
The Liberal vote is characteristic of Boomers (55 to 64 - 39%), females (38%),
in mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 38%), the wealthiest ($100K to $250K -
45%) in the Atlantic provinces (50%) and Ontario (42%). The NDP vote is common
to the youngest (26%), low income groups ($20K to $40K - 27%), in Quebec (29%)
and BC (26%). Of note, the Liberal vote is the "stickiest", in that
more past Liberals will vote their party this time (84%) than will past Conservative
(73%) or NDP voters (64%). About one fifth of past Conservative (17%) and NDP
voters (22%) will vote Liberal this time.
Hung
Parliament Seen
If
these results are projected up to seats in a 308 seat House of Commons, the
Conservatives would take 111 to the Liberals' 110, for a hung parliament. The
NDP would hold the balance of power with 75 seats, while the Bloc would take
11. If Green Party leader Elizabeth May, who is expected to retain her seat,
votes with the Liberals, parliament will be exactly hung.
Trudeau's
Favourables Slip
Liberal leader Justin Trudeau
has seen his approval slip slightly from close to half last month (46%) to just
more than 4-in-10 today (43%) and his net favourable score (approve minus
disapprove) has declined from +8 to +1 now. Approvals for Prime Minister Harper
(33% approve, -27 net) and Tom Mulcair (43% approve, the same as Trudeau, +14
net) have stayed generally stable since last month.
Harper
and Trudeau Tied as Best PM
Justin
Trudeau (28%) and Stephen Harper (26%) are essentially tied for best Prime
Minister, while Tom Mulcair trails at less than a fifth (17%). This represents
a slight narrowing of the gap between Trudeau and Harper since last month (30%
and 25%, respectively).
Two-thirds Think It's Time for a Change
in Ottawa
Two
thirds of Canadian voters think it's time for a change of government in Ottawa
(68%) and this is a sharp increase since we asked this last year (June 2013 -
61%). Virtually all New Democrats (94%) and Liberals (88%) believe change is
needed, but even a substantial minority of Conservative supporters think so too
(16%).
“It appears Justin Trudeau's restrictions on
Liberal candidates with pro-life views has peeled off a small but important
tranche of support for not only him, but, incrementally, his party. I'm not
sure that there is a corresponding upside, in that those who support pro-choice
views are already in his court," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
