Liberals, PCs remain tied in Ontario

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Liberals, PCs remain tied in Ontario

Liberal minority seen

TORONTO December 20th, 2014 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1058 Ontario voters, equal proportions, just more than a third, will vote for the Liberals (35%) or the PCs (36%), and this is very similar to results noted last month (November 29, Liberals, PCs - 37% each). The NDP will take about one fifth of the vote (20%) just more than last month (November - 17%). Few will vote Green (7%) and, especially, for other parties (2%).

Liberal minority seen

If these results were projected up to seats in a 107 seat Legislature, the Liberals would capture a minority of 52 seats, to 37 for the PCs and 18 for the NDP, and this is similar to the projections noted last month (November, 52, 38, 17 respectively).

Wynne's favourables down, Horwath and Wilson unchanged

Premier Kathleen Wynne enjoys the support of just more than a third of Ontario voters (37%), compared to 4-in-10 last month (42%) and close to half the month before (October - 46%). In contrast, Andrea Horwath’s approval (35%) is very similar to last month (33%) and she is now tied with the Premier. Jim Wilson, interim leader of the PCs receives an approval rating of just one fifth (22%) and this is consistent with previous months. In terms of net favourable scores (approve minus disapprove), Horwath (-1) and Wilson (-2) lead the Premier (-10).

Elliott first choice for leader among PCs, MacLeod strong second

While Christine Elliott leads in preference for a new PC leader among both the general public (20%) and even more so among PC voters (29%), and no other contender is chosen by as many as one tenth, Lisa MacLeod comes close (9% among PC voters, 7% among the general public). Close to 3-in-10 say none of the available choices would be best (27% among the public, 14% among PC voters) and fully one third do not know (33% public, 29% PC voters). When voters are asked their second choice for leader, however, MacLeod is the top pick, amongst all voters (21%) and especially among PC voters (25%), compared to one fifth for Christine Elliott (19% among both public and PC voters). In total, just more than a tenth are undecided or unimpressed (11% and 14%, respectively) and somewhat fewer PC voters will claim none of the listed leaders is appropriate (10%). MacLeod is also the leader among all candidates for third choice (general public - 18%, PC voters - 17%).

While things are quiet on the government front with an election at least 3 years away, the big story is the Progressive Conservative leadership race, which is currently Chris Elliott's to lose. Lisa MacLeod, on the other hand, appears to have considerable upside as the consensus choice for second place in this race, and with a preferential ballot, this is a very strong position to be in," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.