PC minority seen if election held today
TORONTO FEBRUARY
28th, 2015 - In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 996 Ontario
voters, almost 4-in-10 will vote PC if the election were held today (39%),
while just one third will vote Liberal (32%). This stands in contrast to last
month when the two parties were in a statistical tie (January 30 - 36% and 37%
respectively). One fifth will vote for the provincial NDP (21%), one twentieth
will vote Green (6%) and few will vote for other parties (2%). In contrast to
past waves of polling, when the Liberal party had the “stickiest” vote (past
voters who will vote the party again), this distinction belongs to the PCs this
month, and 9-in-10 past PC voters will vote their party again (89%). Just three
quarters of Liberals and New Democrats will vote for the same party they
supported in June (74% each).In the meantime, one tenth of past Liberals (12%)
and New Democrats (11%) will vote PC this time.
PC minority seen
If
these results are projected up to seats in a 107 seat legislature, the PCs
would capture a six seat minority of 49, compared to 39 for the Liberals. The
New Democrats would occupy 19 seats.
Elliott improves PC chances, not so much Brown or McNaughton
If
the leader of the PC is Christine Elliott, the party does slightly better than
with a generic leader (PC - 41%, Liberal 31%). On the other hand, Patrick Brown
(35% and 34% respectively) and Monte McNaughton (33% and 36%, respectively) do
not do as well.
Wynne’s favourables drop, others are steady
Just
more than one third of voters approve of the job Premier Wynne is doing (36%),
down from 4-in-10 last month (40%) and her net favourable score (approve minus
disapprove) is a negative -16. Andrea Horwath’s approval is steady at more than
a third (37% this month, 36% last month) and her net score is a neutral -1. Jim
Wilson’s approval as interim leader of the PCs stands at one quarter (24%), and
his net favourable is a neutral -2.
Two thirds aware of Sudbury by-election controversy
Two
thirds of Ontario voters are aware of the controversy surrounding the Sudbury
by-election (64%), and they tend to be older (55 to 64 - 79%, 65+ - 73%), male
(71%) rather than female (57%), wealthier ($80K to $100K - 74%), among PC
supporters (74%) but not among New Democrats (56%), among the best educated
(post grad - 71%). Curiously, awareness is lower in Northern Ontario than
elsewhere (57%).
Two thirds think Sorbara should step aside
Two
thirds of Ontario voters aware of the Sudbury controversy agree the Premier’s
Deputy Chief of Staff, Patricia Sorbara, should step aside while the
controversy is being investigated (65%), while one quarter think she should not
(27%). One tenth have no opinion (8%). Predictably, PC voters (88%) and New
Democrats (73%) agree she should step aside, but so do one third of Liberal
supporters (32%).
Less agreement Sorbara should be charged
Just
fewer than 4-in-10 think Sorbara should be charged with a crime (39%) and
almost as many think she should not be charged (36%). Fully one quarter have no
opinion (25%).
One half want a mulligan on by-election
One
half of Ontario voters familiar with the Sudbury by-election controversy think
the results of the by-election should be set aside and the by-election held
gain (52%), while one third do not agree (33%). One sixth have no opinion
(15%). Even one quarter of Liberal supporters think the by-election should be
held again (24%).
More than a third want Wynne to resign
Just
more than a third of Ontario voters think Premier Kathleen Wynne should resign
(37%), while one half do not think so (48%). One sixth are unsure on this issue
(15%). Of those aware of the Sudbury controversy, more than 4-in-10 want a
resignation (43%), while about half as many who are not aware of the
controversy think this (26%).
Despite awareness, no interest in pursuing Liberal scandals
When asked which of a number of actions both
the government and opposition parties should take, the overwhelming support is
for the government to work to create jobs and growth (37%) and for the
opposition parties to work with them to achieve these ends (52%). Few want the
gas plants scandal pursued (government - 11%, opposition - 11%), or the Sudbury
by-election scandal (government - 3%, opposition - 5%). Other actions voters
want the government to take are to control government spending and wages (18%)
and eliminate waste (15%). The opposition parties are encouraged to rebuild
(9%).
“The
corrosive effect of the ongoing coverage of the gas plants controversy, coupled
with the Chief Electoral Officer’s finding in the Sudbury by-election case,
have finally dealt Kathleen Wynne and her Liberals a telling blow. It’s clear
that the publicity, although not universally recalled, is enough to materially
affect both the Premier’s personal approval ratings and those of her party. In
a majority government at the beginning of its mandate, this is not a major
concern, but Ms Wynne will need to put these genies back in the bottle at some
point," said Forum Research President,
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
