Liberal Support Still Soft

Liberal Support Still Soft

The narrow gap between Conservative and Liberal, first identified by Forum, is now a trend

Toronto, November 9^th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1281 Canadian voters, almost four in ten (38%) say that if an election were held today, they would support the Conservative Party, a similar proportion of support we saw (September 21: 39%) when last in the field.

Just over one third (36%) say they would support the Liberals, which is also very close to their support (September 21: 35%) when last in the field.

About one sixth (14%) saying they’d support the NDP, effectively unchanged (September 21: 15%) since we polled last.

Few say they would support the (6%) Green (September 21: 4%), with as many (6%) saying they support the BQ (September 21: 5%). (1%) said they support another party.

Respondents most likely to say they support the Conservatives include those aged 65+ (42%), males (45%), the most wealthy (48%), living in the prairies (74%, n=84), with some college/university (45%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include females (39%), the least wealthy (44%), living in Atlantic Canada (54%), and with a post-graduate degree (42%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (21%), the least wealthy (21%), living in Québec (15%), Ontario (15%), or Alberta (16%), and with a college/university (17%) or post-graduate degree (17%).

Despite dip in support, Liberals still likely to hold a minority, if an election were held today

Due to vote distribution, and the statistical tie between Conservative and Liberal, the Liberals would still form a minority government, if an election were held today, securing 164 of 338 seats.

The Conservatives would win 148 seats and would form the official opposition.

The NDP would secure 15 seats, the BQ 11, and the Greens would increase their seat count by 100% with 2 seats.  

“The Liberals’ dip in popularity, first identified by Forum in September, has steadied in November, but that it hasn’t rebounded suggests their down numbers might be more than just a blip,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “There are still two years before the next election, which is an eternity in politics, but clearly some of the negatively received policies introduced by the Liberals of late have begun to hinder their overall support.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.