Elliott tests best as PC leader
TORONTO AUGUST 22nd,
2014 – In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1229 Ontario
voters, 4-in-10 would vote Liberal if an election were held today (39%), and
one third would vote PC (32%), and these results are almost the same as those
obtained by the two parties in the recent election (39% and 31%,
respectively).The NDP, on the other hand, has seen its vote share drop from one
quarter at the election (24%) to one fifth today (19%). Close to a tenth now
support the Green Party (8%), up from a twentieth at the election (5%), and few
support any other party (2% now, 1% at the election).
Stronger majority for Liberals if seats
projected
If
these results were projected up to seats in a 107 seat Legislature, the
Liberals would capture 61, up from 58 today, while the PCs would take 31, down
from 37 today. The NDP would see their seat count decline from 17 today to 15.
Elliott with best trial heat results as
PC leader
MPP
Christine Elliott, widow of former federal finance minister Jim Flaherty, tests
the best as a possible PC leader. With her name mentioned, the PCs take a one
third vote share (33%) to just more than this for the Liberals (37%).
Next
best in the trial heats is federal cabinet minister Lisa Raitt (PCs - 29%,
Liberals - 39%), followed by dark horse candidate, federal MP Patrick Brown
from Barrie (PCs - 28%, Liberals - 40%) and MPP Vic Fedeli (PCs - 28%, Liberals
- 42%).
Potential
candidates who do not test so well include MPP Lisa MacLeod (PCs - 26%,
Liberals - 40%) and MPP Monte McNaughton (PCs - 26%, Liberals - 41%).
Wynne's favourables up sharply; Horwath
bounces back
Close
to one half approve of the job Kathleen Wynne is doing as Premier (46%) and
this is up significantly from just after the election (July 3 - 41%) and from
just before the election as well (June 9 - 36%). Her net favourable rating
(approve minus disapprove) is +2, and improvement from -3 and -17 before that.
Andrea Horwath has seen her approval bounce back to just more than a third
(35%) from about a quarter right after the election (July 3 - 28%). Her net is
up from -19 to -12. One quarter approve of the job Jim Wilson is doing as
interim leader of the PCs (27%), one quarter do not (27%), so his net is 0.
Elliott with highest awareness and
approval
Among
the potential PC leadership candidates tested, Christine Elliott has both the
highest awareness (53%) and approval (50%), and her net is a very positive +24.
Lisa Raitt is next best known (48% awareness), but her approval is just one
third (33%) and her net is a negative -10. More than 4-in-10 are aware of Lisa
MacLeod (43%), and her approval is at the same level (41%), with a positive net
favourable score of +7. Vic Fedeli (31% aware, 35% approve, net +1), Monte
McNaughton (27% aware, 37% approve, net +2) and especially Patrick Brown (23%
aware, 33% approve, net -10) are known to fewer than a third, and their
approvals and nets are at a similar level.
Conclusion
Kathleen
Wynne has consolidated her grip on public opinion since the election and has
leveraged her victory to higher levels of approval. Christine Elliott, however,
would present a formidable opponent to Premier Wynne in the legislature, and
would invigorate her own party in a way that is sorely needed since the debacle
suffered in the recent election.
“We have identified Christine Elliott as the best leader for
the PCs well before this, well before the election, as a matter of fact. These
findings do not come as a surprise," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
