Liberals,
PCs tied in Ontario
Liberal minority seen
TORONTO November
29th, 2014 –
In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1054
Ontario voters, exactly equal proportions, just more than a third, will vote PC
or Liberal if a provincial election were held today (37% each). This is in
contrast to one month ago, when the Liberals held a five point lead over the
PCs (40% to 35%). The NDP vote is stable at a little less than one fifth (17%
now, 19% a month ago). Few will vote Green (7%) or for any other party (2%).
The
Liberal vote is common to younger groups (35 to 44 - 40%), the wealthiest ($100K
to $250K - 42%), in the city of Toronto (53%), moms of kids under 18 (41%) and
the best educated (post grad - 53%). The PC vote is characteristic of the
oldest (47%), the less wealthy ($20K to $40K - 42%), in Eastern Ontario (50%)
and the least educated (43%).
Liberals would lead minority government
If these
results were projected up to seats in a 107 seat Legislature, the Liberals
would take 52 to 38 for the PCs. The NDP would take 17 seats. This is in
contrast to a 2 seat majority for the Liberals projected last month (56, 37, 14
seats, respectively).
PCs would lead with Christine Elliott at
the helm
If an election
were held today, and Christine Elliott were PC leader, the party would have a
slight advantage over the Liberals (37% to 35%), while the NDP would still take
a fifth (19%).
PCs would win if Chow led NDP
If the election
were held with Olivia Chow leading the New Democrats, they would improve their
vote share to more than a quarter (26%), but, more importantly, the PCs would
lead the Liberals (35% to 31%).
Christine Elliott leads all other
contenders for all attributes
When voters are
asked which of the five contenders for the PC leadership would be best at a
number of tasks, Christine Elliott is preferred by wide margins for all,
including winning the next election (29%), balancing the budget (22%), working
effectively with the government in Ottawa (29%), being the most likeable (27%),
sharing the respondent's values (20%) and making the best leader for the party
(Elliott - 26%, none of these - 48%). No other candidate scores in double
digits on any of these dimensions.
Wynne's favourables down, others stable
Premier Wynne
has the approval of just more than 4-in-10 (42%), down from closer to half last
month (46%), and her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is well
down from +5 last month to -5 now. Andrea Horwath's approval is stable (33%
now, 31% last month), and her net is similar to last month (-9 now, -13 then).
Interim leader of the PCs, Jim Wilson, posts low approvals (22%) and
disapprovals (24%) and has a neutral net score of -1.
“The
Liberals have lost vote share to the point where the PCs lead when Christine
Elliott, the prohibitive favourite for the leadership, is mentioned. What is
more interesting though, is that Olivia Chow will take votes from both parties
if she leads the NDP, leaving the PCs with a clear lead over the Liberals," said Forum Research President, Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
