Liberals and NDP remain tied in Sudbury

| Filed under: Ontario

Liberals and NDP remain tied in Sudbury

Independent Andrew Olivier surges

TORONTO January 21st, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken among 689 voters in the Ontario provincial riding of Sudbury, where a by-election will take place on February 5, equal proportions, about a third or just less, will vote for the Liberal candidate (formerly NDP MP) Glenn Thibeault (33%) or the NDP candidate, Suzanne Shawbonquit (30%). While they were also tied the last time we polled this riding (January 13, Thibeault - 40%, Shawbonquit - 42%), what has changed is that independent Andrew Olivier (formerly a Liberal candidate), has surged from almost no votes on January 13 (1%) to as much as close to a quarter now (22%), putting him in third place, ahead of the PC candidate, Paula Peroni (11% now, 13% on January 13).

Thibeault’s approval slips, Shawabonquit’s awareness up

Virtually all voters are aware of Glenn Thibeault (94%) and Andrew Olivier (89%), and most know Paula Peroni (81%). These awareness levels are steady from January 13 (96%, 83% and 74%, respectively), but awareness levels for Suzanne Shawbonquit have increased from two thirds (67%) to more than three quarters now (76%). Green candidate David Robinson has also increased his awareness (from 32% to 45%). In terms of approval, Glenn Thibeault has seen significant slippage (from 51% on January 13 to 41% now), while other candidates have mostly seen their approval levels remain stable.

This looks like an evenly matched race, where Thibeault’s familiarity in the riding is matched by the strong New Democratic roots in Sudbury, which favour Shawbonquit. The wild card is spurned Liberal candidate Andrew Olivier, who may yet prove to be a giant killer," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.