Liberals
with 44 point lead
First Post-Writ poll has Liberals up by a factor of 3
TORONTO November
6th, 2015 - In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 766 Newfoundland and Labrador voters
the day after the election writs were announced for the provincial election of
November 30, the Liberals have triple the vote share (65%) of the incumbent
Progressive Conservatives (21%) and a seemingly insurmountable lead. The NDP
has about one tenth of the vote (13%). Very few will vote other parties (1%).
The
Liberal vote is common to the youngest (70%), females (68%) and in Corner Brook
and Western Newfoundland (78%). The Progressive Conservative vote is
characteristic of the oldest (33%), males (24%), mid income groups ($40K to
$60K - 26%) and in Grand Falls-Windsor and Central Newfoundland (26%). The NDP
vote is common to the least wealthy (17%) and in Labrador (23%).
Of
note, more than one half of those who voted Progressive Conservative in 2011
will be voting Liberal in the coming election (56%), as will more than one half
of those who voted NDP in 2011 (52%). Thus, each of the opposition parties has
emptied at least half its vote into the Liberals.
Ball most popular leader by far
Dwight
Ball of the Liberals has the approval of almost half the voters (46%) and his
net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +22. Paul
Davis, the Premier, has the approval of one third (34%) and his net is a
negative -9. Earle McCurdy trails at 3-in-10 approving (30%) and a net
favourability of -4.
Ball seen as best premier
Dwight
Ball is seen to make the best premier by more than a third (37%), compared to
just one quarter for Paul Davis (25%). Earle McCurdy brings up the rear at just
one tenth (10%). About one sixth think none of these is
up to the job (14%) or don’t have an opinion (15%).
“This lopsided result is not unanticipated, but it is interesting
the different voters are so clearly delineated demographically. Young females
are firmly in the Liberal camp and older males in the Progressive Conservative
camp. The NDP, of course, is very solid in Labrador, but not elsewhere in the
province," said Forum Research President,
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
