One half
agree Wynne is involved in e-mail scandal
Close to half agree Premier should step aside during
investigation
TORONTO December
21st, 2015 - In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1003 Ontario
voters, one half agrees Premier Kathleen Wynne had a role in erasing the gas
plant e-mails (49%), while one fifth disagree she had any role (21%). As many
as 3-in-10 don’t have an opinion (31%). Among PCs, three quarters agree the
Premier is culpable (73%), while just one fifth of Liberals think she is (19%).
Six-in-ten New Democrats agree the Premier had a role in deleting the e-mails
(59%).
One half agree Premier should step down during investigation of
e-mails
Close to one half of Ontario voters agree Premier Wynne
should step aside while the scandal of the erased e-mails is investigated
(47%), and more than a third disagree (36%). Fewer than one fifth don’t have an
opinion (18%). Of note, as many as one fifth of those who plan to vote Liberal
in the next election believe the Premier should step aside (18%). Three
quarters of PCs (73%) and more than one half of New Democrats agree (53%).
PCs lead in voter preference
One third will vote PC if the election were held today
(34%), while about 3-in-10 will vote Liberal (31%). One quarter will vote NDP
(26%) and few will vote Green (7%) or for another party (1%). These findings
represent stability since last month, when the PCs similarly led by 6 points
(November 5, PCs - 36%, Liberals - 30%, NDP - 26%).
The PC vote is characteristic of the oldest (41%) males
(40%), while the Liberal vote is common to the youngest (3%), females (33%)
rather than males (28%), mid income groups (41%) in Eastern Ontario (39%) and
among the most educated (post grad - 38%). The NDP vote is also common to the
youngest (34%), the least wealthy (33%) and in Southwestern Ontario (33%).
Small PC minority seen
If these results are projected up to seats in the current
107 seat Legislature, the PCs would take a minority of 44 seats, 10 fewer than
required for a majority, while the Liberals would take 35 seats and the NDP 25,
for a very balanced house.
Party leader favourables are steady
Fewer than a quarter of Ontario voters approve of Kathleen
Wynne’s performance as Premier (23%) and she has a net favourable score
(approve minus disapprove) of a very negative -38. This is in contrast to a
poorer previous score of 21% and -47 last month. Patrick Brown has the approval
of one quarter of voters (25%) and his net is a neutral +2. This is very
similar to last month’s score of 27% and 0. Andrea Horwath has the highest
approval at 4-in-10 voters (40%) and her net favourble score is a very positive
+13. This is similar to last month’s findings on this measure (41% approval,
+11 net favourable).
Three leaders tied for best Premier
All three leaders are seen to make the best Premier,
Including Andrea Horwath (20%), Kathleen Wynne and Patrick Brown (19% each).
However, more than a quarter think none of these three is up to the job (27%).
“While
this looks dire for the Premier, with one half the electorate suggesting she
step down, it must be noted that the government’s vote share and approvals have
not changed markedly from before this information about the erased e-mails was
released," said Forum Research President,
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
