Ontario PC’s Lead By 10 Points

| Filed under: Ontario

Ontario PC’s Lead By 10 Points

Wynne’s, Brown's favourables down

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1173 Ontario voters, 4-in-10 will support the Progressive Conservatives if an election were held today (40%), while 3-in-10 will support the Liberals (30%). About one fifth will support the NDP (21%), one tenth the Green Party (8%) and very few will vote another party (2%). These findings are identical to those noted in our last wave of polling (May 31).

Wynne’s, Brown's favourables down

Kathleen Wynne has the approval of fewer than one fifth of voters (18%) and this is the lowest approval we have measured for a Liberal premier. Her net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) is a record low -49. She has seen her approval slip from one fifth the last time we polled (May 31 - 21%).

Patrick Brown has the approval of just more than a fifth (22%), down from a quarter (25%) and his net score is -3, primarily because few know enough about him to have an opinion (don’t know - 53%).

Andrea Horwath’s approval is steady at one third (33%), similar to last month (34%), and her net score is +6, up slightly from +3.

Brown to make best Premier

The winner of the best premier measure is actually “none of these” (28%), but, among those selected, Patrick Brown has the highest favour (24%), followed by a tie for second place between Andrea Horwath (15%) and Kathleen Wynne (16%). These standings have no changed materially since last month.

One half of PC voters think Patrick Brown would make the best premier (52%), whereas fewer Liberals support Wynne (43%), or New Democrats support Horwath (49%).

PC minority government would result

If these results are projected up to the 107 seat Legislature, the PCs would take a minority of 51, 3 seats fewer than needed for a majority, while the Liberals would take 36 seats and the NDP 20.

“There is no question the Progressive Conservatives would win an election held tomorrow, but it appears they wouldn’t be able to seal the deal with a majority. Patrick Brown needs to become more of a familiar face to Ontarians before that happens" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.