Ontario PC’s Lead By 10 Points
Wynne’s, Brown's favourables down
In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1173 Ontario voters, 4-in-10
will support the Progressive Conservatives if an election were held today
(40%), while 3-in-10 will support the Liberals (30%). About one fifth will
support the NDP (21%), one tenth the Green Party (8%) and very few will vote
another party (2%). These findings are identical to those noted in our last
wave of polling (May 31).
Wynne’s, Brown's favourables down
Kathleen Wynne has
the approval of fewer than one fifth of voters (18%) and this is the lowest
approval we have measured for a Liberal premier. Her net favourable rating
(approve minus disapprove) is a record low -49. She has seen her approval slip
from one fifth the last time we polled (May 31 - 21%).
Patrick Brown has
the approval of just more than a fifth (22%), down from a quarter (25%) and his
net score is -3, primarily because few know enough about him to have an opinion
(don’t know - 53%).
Andrea Horwath’s
approval is steady at one third (33%), similar to last month (34%), and her net
score is +6, up slightly from +3.
Brown to make best Premier
The winner of the
best premier measure is actually “none of these” (28%), but, among those
selected, Patrick Brown has the highest favour (24%), followed by a tie for
second place between Andrea Horwath (15%) and Kathleen Wynne (16%). These
standings have no changed materially since last month.
One half of PC
voters think Patrick Brown would make the best premier (52%), whereas fewer
Liberals support Wynne (43%), or New Democrats support Horwath (49%).
PC minority government would result
If these results are
projected up to the 107 seat Legislature, the PCs would take a minority of 51,
3 seats fewer than needed for a majority, while the Liberals would take 36
seats and the NDP 20.
“There is no
question the Progressive Conservatives would win an election held tomorrow, but
it appears they wouldn’t be able to seal the deal with a majority. Patrick
Brown needs to become more of a familiar face to Ontarians before that
happens" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
