Liberal Vote Share Up in Ontario
NDP share ticks down
In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1183 Ontario voters, just more
than 4-in-10 will vote Progressive Conservative if an election were held today
(42%), while more than a third will vote for the Liberals (35%). Fewer than one
fifth will vote NDP (17%). These findings represent a clear increase for the
Liberals from last month (June 22 - 30%) and a slight increase for the PCs
(from 40%)). These changes are at the expense of the NDP, which has seen its vote
share decline by 4 points (from 21%). One twentieth support the Green Party
(5%) and few support other parties (2%).
The Liberal
stronghold is in the 416 area code of Toronto (49%), while the PCs are
especially strong in Eastern, Southwestern and Northern Ontario (46% each). The
NDP does best in Northern Ontario (20%).
About one tenth of
those who voted Liberal in the last election will vote PC (13%) or NDP (12%)
this time, while about one fifth of past New Democrats will vote Liberal this
time around (19%) and just fewer will vote PC (14%).
Wynne’s, Brown’s favourables up sharply
Premier Kathleen
Wynne has the approval of close to a quarter of Ontario voters (22%), up from
less than a fifth last month (June 22 - 18%). Her net favourable score (approve
minus disapprove) is up slightly from -49 to -44. She has the approval of one
half of Liberal voters (52%), while one third disapprove (32%).
Patrick Brown has
seen his approval jump from one fifth last month (June 22 - 22%) to almost
3-in-10 today (29%), and his net score is +4. His relatively low net score is
due to the high percentage who don’t know enough about him to indicate their
approval (46%). He has the approval of one half of Progressive Conservative
voters (53%).
Andrea Horwath has
seen her approval stable at one third (33%), and her net score at +2. She has
the approval of 6-in-10 New Democrats (60%).
Brown seen as best Premier by a factor
of 2
Patrick Brown is
seen to make the best Premier by about twice as many voters (26%) as say this of
either Kathleen Wynne (16%) or Andrea Horwath (15%). The leading choice is,
however, “none of these” (27%), and as many as a sixth don’t have enough
information to judge (16%). More than one half of PC voters pick Brown (57%),
and somewhat fewer Liberals pick Wynne (42%) and the same applies to New
Democrats for Andrea Horwath (48%).
Result would be PC minority government
If these results are
projected up to the 107 seat Legislature, the PCs would take 48, 6 fewer than
required for a majority, while the Liberals would take just fewer at 44, and
the NDP would secure 15 seats.
“The PC lead has
shrunk since last month, and this may be related to Patrick Brown’s seeming
inability to craft a recognizable political persona for himself. He needs to be
much more prominent in the public consciousness" said Forum Research
President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
