Liberal Vote Share Tumbles in Ontario
PC
majority, NDP would form opposition if election held today
In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1097 Ontario voters, 4-in-10
will vote Progressive Conservative if an election were held today (41%), while
just more than one quarter would vote Liberal (28%). Just less than a quarter will
vote for the NDP (23%).The Green Party takes a share of about one twentieth
(6%), while few will vote for any other party (2%).
This stands in
contrast to last month, when the PC vote share was relatively stable (42%), but
the Liberal vote was sharply higher (35%). The New Democrat vote share has also
increased significantly (from 17%) since last month. It appears the lost
Liberal votes have gone to the NDP.
The PC vote is
common to the oldest (55+ - 46%), Males (48%) rather than females (35%), the wealthy
($80K to $100K - 47%) and in the 905 area code surrounding Toronto (47%).
The Liberal vote is
characteristic of the youngest (34%), the least wealthy (41%), in the Toronto
416 area code (32%) and the best educated (post grad - 37%),
The NDP vote is common
to the youngest (30%), females (27%) rather than males (18%), the least wealthy
(31%), in northern Ontario (29%) and those with some college (27%).
PC majority, NDP opposition seen
If these
results are projected up to the current 107 seat Legislature, the PCs would
take 69, 15 more than required for a majority, while the NDP would form the
opposition with 23 seats, and the Liberals would take just 15.
Wynne’s favourables tumble too
Kathleen Wynne has
the approval of just one sixth of voters (16%, down from 22%) and this is the
lowest approval we have seen for a party leader since 2011. Her net favourable
score (approve minus disapprove) is a deeply negative -56, down from -44 last
month. Just 4-in-10 Liberals approve of her performance (42%) and almost as
many disapprove (39%).
Patrick Brown has
the approval of just more than a quarter of voters (26%), down slightly from
last month (29%) and his net is a neutral +1, because so many people have no
opinion on the question. Just fewer than one half of PC voters approve of Brown
(47%), but most don’t know enough to have an opinion (39%).
Andrea Horwath has
stable approval at one third (34%) with a slightly positive net of +6. Her
approval is at 6-in-10 (62%) among New Democrats.
Brown seen to make best Premier
Patrick Brown is
seen to be the best candidate for Premier by a quarter (25%), while about a
sixth see Andrea Horwath in this role (17%) and fewer see the incumbent as the
best choice (Kathleen Wynne - 14%). However, the largest single group thinks
none of these is up to the job (27%), and as many as one fifth don’t have an
opinion (17%).
“It appears Premier Wynne’s
chickens have finally come home to roost, and voters have started to notice the
controversies surrounding her government. The beneficiary, however, appears to
be the NDP, rather than the PCs, although a majority would be theirs if the
election were held today" said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
