Liberal minority seen
In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 882 Ontario
voters, exactly equal proportions, just more than a third, will vote for the
Liberals or the PCs in the upcoming provincial election (36%). This represents
a decline for the Liberals since the last time we polled (May 20, Liberals -
41%, PCs - 34%). The NDP will take one fifth of the vote (20%) and this has not
changed since last week. Close to one tenth will vote Green (7%), but very few
will vote for other parties (1%). The Liberal vote is especially high among
Boomers (55 to 64 - 41%), females (39%), high income groups ($80K to $100K -
45%, $100K to $250K - 41%), in the Toronto 416 area code (49%) and in the north
(41%). The PC vote is especially common to the oldest (45%), males (45%), mid
income groups ($60K to $80K - 49%) and in eastern Ontario (47%). The NDP vote
is characteristic of younger groups (under 35 - 25%, 35 to 44 - 26%), females
(24%), the least wealthy (30%), and in southwestern Ontario (29%). Of note,
3-in-10 past New Democrats will vote Liberal this time (29%), as will one tenth
of past PC voters (11%).
Liberal take 5 seat minority
If these results are
projected up to seats in a 107 seat Legislature, the Liberals would take a 5
seat minority of 50, to 42 for the PCs and 15 for the New Democrats. This
represents a significant drop in projected seats for the Liberals (from 63 last
week) and a commensurate increase in seats for the PCs (from 31).
Wynne's favourables slip
Kathleen Wynne has the
approval of one third (34%), down from close to 4-in-10 last week (38%). Her
net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) is -20, well down from -8
previously. Andrea Horwath has the approval of one third as well (34%), and her
net is a similar -14, down from -5 last week. Tim Hudak has seen his approval
inch up to more than a quarter now (27%), from a quarter last week (25%) and
less than that previously (May 12 - 23%). His net, however, is a dismal -36,
similar to last week's -34.
Wynne slips as best Premier
Three-in-ten think Kathleen
Wynne makes the best Premier (31%), down from a third last week (34%). Well
more than a quarter see Tim Hudak in this role (28%, up from 22% last week).
Andrea Horwath trails at just one fifth (18%), while one fifth think none of
these would do the job well (18%).
PCs lead on jobs/growth, battling
corruption; tied on transit
In a testing of attributes
important to voters, one third see the PCs as best at promoting jobs and growth
(33%), compared to 3-in-10 who pick the Liberals (31%), Fewer think the NDP
will be good at this (19%). Three-in-ten think the PCs are best able to handle
government corruption (29%), and just fewer think the NDP would be best (24%).
Fewer think the Liberals can police this issue (15%). On transit and
transportation infrastructure, Liberals (26%) and PCs (27%) are equally likely
to be preferred, while the NDP is not (14%).
NDP platform well-liked, PCs' too;
Liberals', not so much
When asked directly, the
plurality prefer the NDP plan to raise corporate taxes from 11.5% to 12.5%
(46%) to the PC plan to reduce corporate taxes to 8% (34%). One fifth opts for
neither course (17%). Fully 7-in-10 approves of the NDP family caregiver tax
credit (70%), and this proposal is popular with the majority of all party
supporters (PCs - 56%, Liberals - 71%, NDP - 90%). One half approve of the NDP
promise of a cabinet-level Minister of Savings (51%), while one third
disapprove (35%). Disapproval is common to PCs (42%) and Liberals (41%), but
also to New Democrats (19%). One half agrees with the PC plan to hold a
judicial enquiry into the gas plants controversy (50%), and more than a third
disapprove (37%). The PC admission that class sizes will grow is disapproved of
by two thirds (64%), including 3-in-10 PC supporters (29%). More than half
approve of the PC plan to cut cabinet to 16 ministers (55%), and this is
relatively popular with Liberals (37%) and New Democrats (43%) as well as PC
voters (90%). Just one half approve of the proposed Ontario Retirement Pension Plan
(ORPP - 49%), and just fewer disapprove (41%). It is popular among Liberals
(80%) and New Democrats (50%), but not PC supporters (17%). There is an even
split on the proposed Liberal plan to spend $29 billion on transit and
transportation infrastructure (45% approve, 44% disapprove), and this promise
is most popular among Liberals (77%) and in Toronto 416 area code (68%).
Honesty and competence valued most in a
candidate
More than 4-in-10 said the
one quality they most valued in a candidate is honesty (42%), followed by
competence (34%). While one tenth value loyalty to the constituent (11%), no
other quality breaks one tenth. PC supporters are slightly more likely to value
honesty (47%) and loyalty to constituents (15%) than others, while Liberals value
competence above other qualities (46%, compared to 31% for honesty). New
Democrats are especially likely to value honesty (54%) and less likely than
others to value competence (22%).
New Democrats most interested in keeping
PCs out of power, not Liberals
One quarter, or the
plurality, say the most important attribute in voting for a party is being able
to defeat the PCs (25%), followed by about one fifth who opt for promoting
transparency and ethics in government (20%) or promoting low taxes and deficit
reduction (18%). One seventh say the most important aspect is being able to
defeat the Liberals (15%). Among PC supporters, the most important party
attributes, cited by more than a third each, are defeating the Liberals (37%)
and pushing low taxes and deficit reduction (34%), followed by transparency and
ethics (18%). Among Liberals, the most important party attributes are keeping
the PCs out of power (49%), followed distantly by transparency and ethics
(19%). Among New Democrats, keeping the PCs out of power (37%) is much more
important than defeating the Liberals (11%). Transparency and ethics (17%) and
low taxes (12%) are also valued.
“This was always a very close race between the two leading
parties, and we've just seen it get closer still. It is interesting to note
that New Democratic partisans are much more likely to fear the PCs winning than
the Liberals holding on to power, which well they might, given Tim Hudak's
antipathy to organized labour, It's also clear that the Liberals need to
continue to leverage this fear by emphasizing PC policies like increasing class
sizes and laying off public servants. The PCs, on the other hand, can use the popular
concern with government corruption to their advantage. This is something Andrea
Horwath has been doing recently, it appears with some success," said Forum Research President, Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
