PCs Lead in Ontario
Wynne at lowest approval ever
In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1124 Ontario voters, more than
4-in-10 will vote for the Progressive Conservatives if an election were held
today (43%), while equal proportions, about one quarter, will vote either
Liberal (24%) or NDP (23%). About one tenth will vote Green (8%) and few will
vote any other party (2%). Vote shares for the parties have not changed
significantly in the past month.
The PCs are
especially strong in southwestern Ontario (49%) while the NDP find their
strength in northern Ontario (30%). The Liberals score best in Toronto’s 416
area code (33%), but even here, the PCs lead (36%).
There is a clear
gender gap in the parties, in that males prefer the PCs more than females (50%
to 37%), while the opposite is true among Liberals (19% to 29%). There is a
gender balance in preference for the NDP (22% male, 25% female).
PCs on track for two thirds majority
If these results are
projected up to seats in the Legislature, the PCs would win two thirds of them
(67%), or 72, to 24 for the NDP, making them the official opposition. The
Liberals would seat just 11 members.
Kathleen Wynne’s favourables probe new low
Just one sixth of
voters approve of Kathleen Wynne (14%), down slightly from last month (16%),
and lower than we have recorded for sitting Premier. Her net favourable score
(approve minus disapprove) is a bottom-scrapingly negative -63. Close to one
half of Liberals approve of their premier (45%), but just fewer disapprove
(40%).
Patrick Brown has
approval from just more than a quarter (27%), but many don’t know him well
enough to have an opinion (49%). His net score is a neutral +3. Patrick Brown
has the approval of one half his party (48%), but, once again, many Progressive
Conservatives haven’t formed an opinion of him (40%).
Andrea Horwath
enjoys the favour of the largest proportion of voters at just more than a third
(36%), and her net score is a favourable +12. Her approval among New Democrats
is more than one half (55%).
Just one tenth see Wynne as best Premier
Patrick Brown is
seen to be best for the Premier’s job by 3-in-10, the plurality (29%), while
second place belongs to “none of these” (25%). Andrea Horwath takes the votes
of one fifth (19%), while half that many choose Kathleen Wynne, the incumbent
(11%). Brown is the choice of more than one half of PC voters (58%), Horwath
has the support of one half of New Democrats (48%) and Wynne has the support of
4-in-10 Liberals (39%).
One half expect PCs to win next election
When asked which
party they expected to win the next election in fall, 2018, rather than the
party they would vote for, the PCs do even better, and one half predict their
victory (47%). This includes one fifth of Liberal voters (17%) and 3-in-10 New
Democrats (30%). Just fewer than a quarter predict the Liberals will win
(22%(), and this includes 6-in-10 Liberals (59%), and one sixth of New
Democrats (15%). Just one tenth think the New Democrats will win (11%) and this
is mostly New Democrats themselves (33%).
One half expect someone else to lead the Liberals in the next
election
One half of voters
do not expect Kathleen Wynne to lead her party in the next election in 2018
(49%), and just one quarter expect she will (27%). One half of PCs and New
Democrats expect her to leave her post (53% and 51% respectively) and as many
as 4-in10 Liberals also expect a new leader by then (42%).
“The problem here is
that none of the three parties has an especially popular leader. None is the
choice of more than about half of their own partisans as Premier. Kathleen
Wynne has her own troubles, but neither Patrick Brown nor Andrea Horwath can
get their approvals higher than about a third. Patrick Brown, because he’s not
well known, or hasn’t projected a consistent message. Andrea Horwath because
she just isn’t that well liked; better than the other leaders, certainly, but
not on the scale of the Prime Minister, or even the mayor of Toronto” said Forum Research
President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
