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Plurality Say Liberals Will Win the Election But NDP thought to be best for BC on a number of issues Toronto, April 12th – In a random sampling of public
opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1040 British Columbia voters, the
plurality believe that the Liberals (35%) will win the provincial election on
May 9th, with (31%) saying that the NDP will win. |
(19%) say they're undecided about who will win.
Respondents most likely to say that the Liberals will win include
those aged 55-64 (40%) or 65+ (43%), males (41%), the most wealthy (41%), and
living in Vancouver Lower Mainland (36%).
Respondents most likely to say the NDP will win include those aged
35-44 (38%), earning $60,000-$80,000 (45%), with a college/university degree
(33%) or a post-graduate degree (34%), and living on Vancouver Island (33%) or
Vancouver/Lower Mainland (32%).
NDP thought to be best
on Healthcare and Education, statistically tied on Economy and Infrastructure
We asked BC voters which party they felt would
be best, if elected, on five issues: the economy, the environment, healthcare,
building infrastructure, and education.
On the economy,
the Liberals (28%) and the NDP (27%) were statistically tied.
Respondents most likely to say the Liberals
would be best for the economy include those aged 45-54 (35%) or 65+ (34%),
males (35%), the most wealthy (37%), and living in BC Interior North
(34%).
Respondents most likely to say the NDP would
be best for the economy include those 34 and younger (30%) or 35-44 (29%), the
least wealthy (35%) or earning $60,000-$80,000 (32%), with a college/university
degree (32%), living in Vancouver Lower Mainland (29%) or Vancouver Island
(26%).
On the environment
the Greens (50%) held a strong lead over the NDP (16%).
Respondents most likely to say the Greens
would be best for the environment include those 34 and younger (59%), females
(53%), the most wealthy (59%), with a post-graduate degree (57%), and living on
Vancouver Island (57%). (48%) of NDP supporters and (41%) of Liberal supporters
also responded that the greens would be best for the environment, if elected.
On healthcare,
the NDP (41%) was a strong favourite over the Liberals (19%).
Respondents most likely to say the NDP would
be best for healthcare include those aged 35-44 (49%), males (43%), earning
$60,000-$80,000 (50%) or the most wealthy (51%), and with a post-graduate
degree (50%). (28%) of Green supporters and (14%) of Liberal supporters respond
that the NDP would be best for healthcare if elected.
On the building
infrastructure, the Liberals (30%) and the NDP (28%) were statistically tied.
Respondents most likely to say the Liberals
would be best for building infrastructure include those aged 35-44 (31%), 55-65
(31%), 65+ (34%), males (38%), the most wealthy (37%), earning $80,000-$100,000
(35%), the least educated (34%) or with a college/university degree (33%),
living in BC Interior North (45%).
Respondents most likely to say the NDP would
be best for the building infrastructure include the least wealthy (34%), the
most wealthy (33%), earning $80,000-$100,000 (31%), with a post graduate (31%)
or college/university (30%) degree, or some college or university (29%).
On education,
the NDP (42%) was a more preferred choice over the Liberals (18%).
Respondents most likely to say the NDP would
be best for education include those aged 35-44 (45%), 34 and younger (42%),
55-64 (42%), the most wealthy (50%) or earning $80,000-$100,000 (48%), with a
post-graduate degree (50%). (26%) of Green Party and (19%) of Liberal
supporters say the NDP would be best for education.
"The NDP has a strong lead on education
and healthcare, and is tied with the Liberals on building infrastructure and
the economy, but, despite that and what the polls are saying right now, the
plurality believe the Liberals will win the election on May 9th. This belief
could prove a double-edged sword for the Liberals if it deters their voters
from going to the polls on election day," said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
