NDP Leads Going Into the Final Week, but the Gap is Narrowing

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CC image courtesy of Province of BC: http://bit.ly/2qlVjpr

Leads Going Into the Final Week, but the Gap is Narrowing

Weaver most popular leader by far

Toronto, May 1st – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1067 British Columbia voters, amongst those and decided and leaning, the NDP (37%) has an eight point lead over the governing Liberals (29%). The Green Party has the support of a quarter (24%) of respondents, with (7%) saying they are supporting the Conservatives, and (3%) saying they support another party.

If the election were held today, the NDP would secure 47 seats, the Liberals 34 seats, the Green Party 4, with 2 going to other parties.

Respondents most likely to support the NDP include those 34 or younger (40%), 45-54 (38%), or 55-64 (38%), females (40%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (44%), $60,000-$80,000 (44%), or $80,000-$100,000, (43%) with a post-graduate degree (43%), and living on Vancouver Island (39%) or Vancouver/Lower Mainland (36%).

Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those aged 65 and over (41%), males (32%), and the most wealthy (35%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Green Party include those 34 and younger (30%) or 35-44 (31%), the least wealthy (30%) or earning $20,000-$40,000 (28%), and living on Vancouver Island (28%) and Interior North (25%).

Weaver most popular leader, Clark ticks up, Horgan ticks down

Just over a quarter (28%) approve of the job Christy Clark is doing as premier, 6-in-10 (62%), and (11%) don’t know. Premier Clark’s net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is -34, slightly better than the beginning of April (April 5: -36)

Just under a third (31%) approve of John Horgan’s job as the leader of the opposition, a similar proportion (34%) disapprove, and (35%) don’t know. Horgan’s net favourable score is -3, down five points since early April (April 5: +2).

4-in-10 (42%) approve of Andrew Weaver’s job as the leader of the Green Party. (17%) disapprove, and (40%) don’t know. Weaver’s net favourable score is +25, an increase of 11 points since early April (April 5th: +14).

Best Premier tied between Horgan and Clark

A quarter (25%) of respondents say, regardless of their party affiliation, that John Horgan would make the best Premier of BC, which is a statistical tie with Christy Clark (24%). Andrew Weaver (21%) is third, just behind the pair. (16%) say they don’t know, with (15%) saying none of the above would make the best premier.


"We’re beginning to see a considerable increase in support for the Green Party, and the favourability of their popular leader Andrew Weaver is well ahead of either of his main opponents. What remains to be seen, however, is how this surge in Green Party support will affect the final count on election day," said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.