Overall, Ontarians Feel New Far North Ridings Will Benefit Indigenous Peoples

Overall, Ontarians Feel New Far North Ridings Will Benefit Indigenous Peoples

Think more Indigenous candidates will run for provincial office

Toronto, August 29^th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 981 Ontario voters, four in ten (40%) say that the two new ridings in Ontario’s far north will increase the amount of indigenous candidates that run for provincial political office. One-quarter (24%) say that the number of indigenous candidates will remain the same, but only (4%) say the number of indigenous candidates will decrease.

Respondents who believe the number of Indigenous candidates will increase include those earning $80,000-$100,000 (45%) or the most wealthy (48%), with a post-graduate level degree (51%), and supporting the vote NDP (54%).

Respondents who believe the number of Indigenous candidates will remain the same include those earning $40,000-$60,000 (32%) or $60,000-$80,000 (32%), living in North-eastern Ontario (38%), and supporting the Progressive Conservative Party (32%).

More than a third think it won’t affect Indigenous self-governance

More than a third (35%) say that the addition of these new ridings will have no effect on Indigenous self-governance, while just under a third (29%) say it will actually strengthen Indigenous self governance. Fewer than one in ten (7%) say it will weaken Indigenous self-governance, while just under a third (29%) say they do not know what effect it will have on indigenous self-governance.

Respondents who say the new ridings will have no effect on Indigenous self-governance include those aged 35-44 (41%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (38%) or the most wealthy (40%), those with a post-graduate degree (43%), living in North-eastern Ontario (46%), and supporting the Progressive Conservative Party (47%)

Respondents who believe new ridings will strengthen Indigenous self-governance include those earning $20,000-$40,000 (36%) or $80,000-$100,000 (37%), those with some college or university education (34%), those who vote Liberal (38%) or NDP (37%).

 Indigenous turnout unlikely to change

Ontarians are torn on their opinion on the effect the two new ridings will have on voter turnout, however.

A third (33%) say that turnout will remain the same, which is statistically tied with do not know (30%). Almost three in ten (29%) say that turnout will increase, just behind do not know. Few (8%) think turnout will decrease in response to the new ridings.

Respondents believing Indigenous voter turnout will remain the same include those aged 45-54 (39%) or 55-64 (59%), male (41%), making $40,000-$60,000 (39%), $60,000-$80,000 (37%), $100,000-$250,000 (38%), living in North-eastern Ontario (38%), and supporting the Progressive Conservative Party (46%).

Respondents believing Indigenous turnout will increase include those aged 34 and under (34%), earning $80,000-$100,000 (33%) or the most wealthy (31%), with a post-graduate degree (36%), and supporting the NDP (40%) or the Liberal Party (39%).

“With the introduction of two new ridings in Ontario’s far north, the plurality say that the number of Indigenous candidates will increase in the upcoming provincial election,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “What isn’t clear to Ontarians is whether or not it will increase Indigenous voter turnout, overall. While these new ridings may have some impact, generally it seems Ontarians think it will be more positive than it will be negative, with those in the North saying so in greater proportions than their Southern counterparts. ”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.