PCs in
the lead in Ontario
Elliott tests best as leader; is preferred to Brown
TORONTO May 1st,
2015 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among a sample of
912 Ontario voters, more than one third will vote Progressive Conservative if
an election were held today (36%), while fewer than 3-in-10 will vote for the
provincial Liberals (29%). The NDP attracts one quarter of the votes (24%), the
Greens a tenth (9%) and few will vote for other parties (2%). This situation
represents relative stability from last month (March 26, Liberal - 29%, PC -
34%), with the exception that the NDP have retreated slightly (from 27% to
24%). One fifth of those who voted Liberal in last year’s election will vote
NDP this time (20%). However, substantial minorities of past NDP voters will
vote PC (10%) or Liberal (14%) this time.
PC minority seen
If
these results are projected up to a 107 seat Legislature, the PCs would capture
a minority of 48 seats, 7 short of a majority, while the Liberals would take 33
seats and the NDP 26.
Wynne’s favourables down
Premier
Wynne has the approval of fewer than 3-in-10 voters (29%), down from a third
last month (33%) and her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a
dismal -30, down from -20 last month. Andrea Horwath has seen her approval
remain stable at close to 4-in-10 (39%) and her net favourable is a neutral +3,
down slightly from +7 last month.
Christine Elliott tests best as PC leader
When
voting preference is gathered with either of the two PC leadership contenders
names included, Christine Elliott posts an 8 point lead over the Liberals under
Kathleen Wynne (36% to 28%), with the NDP just behind at one quarter (25%). When
Patrick Brown is tested as leader, the PCs tie the liberals (32% to 31%,
respectively), and the NDP increase one point (26%). These findings are not
significantly different from those noted last month, which indicates little
momentum in either campaign.
Christine Elliott preferred as leader by PC voters
Among
all voters, fewer than a quarter pick Christine Elliott as preferred PC leader
(22%) and half this proportion pick Patrick Brown (11%). The plurality don’t
have an opinion (37%) or think neither is up to the job (30%). Among PC voters,
however, as many as one third prefer Elliott (33%), to fewer than a fifth on
Patrick Brown’s side (18%). Among partisans, more than a third don’t know (36%)
but far fewer pick neither candidate (12%). Among the very small sample of
claimed party members, Elliott and Brown are tied at about a quarter (26% and
24%, respectively), while about a quarter prefer neither(26%) or don’t know
(25% - caution: very small base size).
Few approve of cap and trade carbon pricing
Fewer
than 3-in-10 voters approve of the government’s cap and trade carbon pricing
plan (29%) and close to one half disapprove (45%). One quarter have no opinion
(26%).
One half think cap and trade will lead to higher prices; fewer
think jobs will be lost
One
half of voters agree cap and trade carbon pricing will lead to higher prices in
Ontario (51%) while just one quarter disagree this is the case (23%). Fewer,
however, just more than a third, agree the carbon pricing scheme will lead to
job losses (36%) while a third don’t think so (33%) and a similar number don’t
know (31%). There is an exact split in opinion on whether cap and trade will
achieve its goal in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and one third either
think it will, think it won’t or don’t know (35%, 35% and 29%, respectively).
“It’s
easy to hate on a majority government in mid-term, there’s no chance you’re
going to have to actually vote for someone. Nonetheless, the decline in
Kathleen Wynne’s favourables, usually better than the party’s, has to be a
concern for her team. Christine Elliott appears to be a very attractive
alternative to a lot of voters, more so than Patrick Brown still," said Forum Research President, Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
