Despite Vigorous
Defense of Minimum Wage, Liberals Still Behind
But Brown and Horwath still widely
unknown
Toronto, January
15th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1022
Ontario voters, amongst those decided and leaning, more than 4 in 10 (43%) say
they would support the Progressive Conservatives if a provincial election were
held today, with a quarter (24%) supporting the Liberals and a quarter (24%)
supporting the NDP. Fewer than 1 in 10 (7%) say they would support the Green
party.
Generally, the
provincial landscape is very similar to the end of November, with little
change, with the PCs are up 3 (Nov 29-30: 43%), the Liberals unchanged (Nov
29-30: 24%), the NDP down 2 (Nov 29-30: 26%), and the Green Party down 1 (Nov
29-30: 8%). Few (2%) say they would support another party.
Since all changes
are within the margin of error, there is effectively no change since November.
Respondents most
likely to support the PCs include those aged 35-44 (48%), 55-64 (50%), or 65+
(47%), males (50%), earning $60,000-$80,000 (54%), the least educated (47%) or
a college/university degree (48%), and living in Southwestern Ontario (56%).
Respondents most
likely to support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (32%), females
(27%), earning $80,000-$100,000 (32%), with some college/university (30%), and
living in Northeastern Ontario (47%).
Respondents most
likely to support the Liberals include those aged 34 and younger (26%), aged
45-54 (25%), or 65+ (26%), the least wealthy (34%), the least educated (26%) or
with a post-graduate degree (29%), and living in Toronto (33%).
The demographics of
the Liberal support have shifted noticeably since November, with its support
amongst the least wealthy going from one-sixth (Nov 29-30: 16%) to a third
(34%) at present, and support amongst those earning $80,000-$100,000 decreasing
10 points from November (Nov 29-30: 30%).
PCs continue to hover over a big
majority
If an election were
held presently, we would expect to see a Progressive Conservative majority
government, with the PCs securing 88 seats.
The NDP would serve
as official opposition, securing 24 seats, and the Liberals would serve as the
third party, with 12 seats.
Wynne remains unpopular, Horwath and
Brown unknown
Kathleen Wynne sees
approval from about one-sixth (16%) and disapproval from about three-quarters
(73%).
Only about 1 in 10
(11%) say they do not know.
Her net favourable
score (approve - disapprove) is -57. Her net favourable score is up 2 points
from November. (Nov 29-30: -59).
Patrick brown sees
approval from a quarter (28%) and disapproval from a third (34%). The plurality
(39%) say they do not know whether to approve or disapprove of Patrick Brown.
His net favourable
score is -6. Brown's net favourable is down 4 points since November (Nov 29-30:
-2).
Andrea Horwath see approval
from a third (33%) and disapproval from a quarter (28%). Like Brown, the plurality
say they do not know what to make of Horwath, with 4 in 10 (39%) saying they do
not know.
Horwath's net favourable score is +5, up 3
points from November. (Nov 29-30: +2)
“The Ontario Liberals' passionate defence of
the rising minimum wage has seen their support amongst lower income Ontarians
almost double, but because they've bled support elsewhere, there's been no
movement in their support, overall," said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research. “Brown's PCs still have a considerable lead, but
Brown and Horwath are clearly not doing enough to raise their profile, given
how many that are responding don't know about the leaders. It's a race to
define: for Brown and Horwath to define themselves, and for Wynne to define
Brown and Horwath."
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
