PC support remains solid in spite of
allegations
Most Ontarians Aware of Allegations Against Brown
Toronto, January 25th
– In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 751 Ontario
voters, more than 8 in 10 (82%) say they are aware of the sexual misconduct
allegations against Patrick Brown. About one-sixth (14%) say they are not
aware, while few (4%) say they do not know.
Approve of his decision to resign as
leader
Almost two-thirds
(60%) say they approve of Brown’s decision to resign as PC leader. One-sixth (18%) say they disapprove of his
decision, and almost a quarter (22%) say they do not know.
Respondents most
likely to say they approve of his decision include those aged 65+ (66%), males
(65%), those living in Eastern Ontario (64%) or Southwestern Ontario (63%), and
supporting the Liberals (73%).
Respondents most
likely to disapprove include those living in Toronto (21%), in the 905 (19%),
or in Northern Ontario (20%), and supporting the PCs (24%).
The majority (55%) of
PC supporters approve of the decision. A quarter (24%) disapprove, and a
similar proportion (22%) do not know.
People’s votes may not shift
The plurality (36%)
say the allegations won’t have any affect on their vote, but almost a quarter
(22%) say it will make them more likely to vote PC. One-sixth (15%) say they
are more likely to vote Liberal, while just over 1 in 10 (12%) say they are more
likely to vote NDP, while about one-sixth (14%) say they aren’t sure if the
allegations will have any effect.
Respondents most
likely to say their vote won’t change include those aged 45-54 (41%) or 55-64
(38%), males (41%), living in Eastern Ontario (44%), and supporting the Green
Party (50%). Additionally (35%) of PC supporters, (37%) of Liberal supporters,
and (33%) of NDP supporters say their vote won’t change.
Respondents most
likely to say they are more likely to vote PC include those aged 45-54 (28%),
55-64 (26%) or 65+ (29%), male (25%), living in Northern Ontario (27%) and
supporting the PCs (52%). (9%) of Green supporters say they are more likely to
vote PC.
Respondents most
likely to say they are more likely to vote Liberal include those aged 35-44
(24%), female (18%), living in Toronto (16%), the 905 (19%), or Northern
Ontario (17%), and supporting the Liberals (45%). (13%) of Green supporters say
they are more likely to vote Liberal.
Respondents most
likely to say they are more likely to vote NDP include those aged 34 and
younger (17%), living in Toronto (416), the 905 (16%), or Northern Ontario
(14%), and supporting the NDP (49%). (8%) of Liberals and (9%) of Greens say
they are more likely to vote NDP.
Amongst the general-public, Christine
Elliot and Doug Ford seen as first choice to succeed Brown
The plurality (41%)
is unsure of who would be their first choice to lead the Ontario PCs.
Christine Elliot
(12%) and Doug Ford (11%) lead amongst a group that have been identified as
potential candidates for new leader. Clustered behind the two frontrunners are
Toronto Mayor John Tory (8%), Caroline Mulroney (7%), Tony Clement (6%), Lisa Raitt
(6%), John Baird (5%), and Lisa Macleod (4%).
Christine Elliot is preferred by PC
supporters
Christine Elliot
leads (17%) amongst those that say they are PC supporters. Doug Ford (13%) and
Caroline Mulroney (11%) are just behind Elliot amongst PC supporters.
Overall, PC support is unchanged
If an election were
held today, the PCs would receive support from more than 4 in 10 (42%), the
Liberals at one-quarter (27%), and the NDP at one quarter (23%). Few (6%) would
support either the Green Party or another party (2%).
Respondents most likely to say they would
vote PC include those aged 45-54 (51%), males (49%), living in Eastern Ontario (44%)
or the 905 (46%).
Respondents most likely to say they would vote
Liberal include those aged 35-44 (34%), females (30%), and living in Toronto (36%).
Respondents most likely to say they will vote
NDP include those aged 34 or younger (28%) and living in Northern Ontario (30%).
“That the numbers for the Progressive
Conservatives haven’t changed much suggests that most supporters were behind
the party, and not the leader. There may be an element of cognitive dissonance
in that because supporters see Brown doing the right thing and their support for
the PCs is strengthened,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
