Liberal Budget Gains Disappear
Progressive
Conservative Majority, Liberals lose party status if an election held today
Toronto, April
19th - In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1126 Ontario voters, the gap between the Progressive
Conservatives and their provincial challengers has widened once again, with
almost half (46%) saying they would vote PC if an election were held today.
One-quarter (27%) say they would
support the NDP, while one-fifth (21%) say they would support the Liberals.
Few (4%) would support the Green Party
or another party (2%).
Respondents most likely to say they are
supporting the PCs include those aged 45-54 (52%) or 55-64 (50%), male (59%), and
anyone earning more than $40,000 including: $40,000-$60,000 (47%),
$60,000-$80,000 (47%), $80,000-$100,000 (49%), and the most wealthy (50%),
parents (51%), the least educated (56%), living in Eastern (50%) or
Southwestern Ontario (48%), or the 905 (49%).
Respondents most likely to say they are
supporting the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (33%), females (33%),
earning $20,000-$40,000 (29%) or $40,000-$60,000 (32%), with a
college/university degree (30%) or post-graduate degree (29%), and living in Toronto
(30%), Southwestern Ontario (28%), or Northern Ontario (29%).
Respondents most likely to say they are
supporting the Liberals include those aged 55-64 (24%) or 65+ (27%), female
(26%), the least wealthy (29%), with a post-graduate degree (30%), and living
in Toronto (28%).
PC
Super-majority on the Horizon
If an election were held today, we
project a PC majority government with 94 seats.
The NDP would serve as official
opposition with 23 seats, while the Liberals would secure only 7 seats, one too
few for party status in Ontario’s legislature.
More
than half of Ontarians think the PCs will win
More than half (54%) say that the PCs will
win the provincial election. One-fifth (19%), about the same as current Liberal
support, say it will be the Liberals. 1 in 10 (10%) say it will be the NDP.
A hopeful few (1%) say it will be the Green
Party, while one-sixth (16%) don’t know who will win.
Almost 9 in 10 (87%) of PC supporters think
the PCs will win.
Contrast that support with (54%) of Liberal
supporters who think the Liberals will win, and the quarter (27%) of NDP
supporters who say they NDP will win.
Ford
approval and disapproval even, Wynne still low
Kathleen Wynne see’s approval from one-fifth
(18%), and disapproval from three-quarters (73%). Only 1 in 10 (9%) say they do
not know. Her net favourable score (Approve-Disapprove) is -54.
Doug Ford’s approval and disapproval are
even, with (37%) saying they approve and (40%) saying they disapprove.
One-quarter (23%) say they do not know.
Doug Ford’s net favourable score is -3.
Andrea Horwath sees the best net favourable
score, with approval of (37%) and disapproval of (32%). A third (31%) say they
do not know about Andrea Horwath.
Her net favourable score is +5
“The bump in support following the Liberal
budget is gone,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "The
Progressive Conservatives are back where we’ve seen them for the past year, and
Doug Ford looks on track to be Premier in a few months. While campaigns matter,
and it’s hard to count out an effective campaigner like Kathleen Wynne, the
fact that the shine from the Liberals’ billions of dollars of promises has
already diminished, must be a blow to their chances.”
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
or at (416) 960-9603.
