It still looks like a PC majority

| Filed under: Ontario

It still looks like a PC majority…

…but the race is tightening. Slightly.

Toronto, May 9th -  In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 777 Ontario voters, the Progressive Conservatives would secure support from 4 in 10 (40%), the Liberals would secure about one-quarter (22%), and the NDP would see support from a third (33%)

Few (4%) say they would support either the Green Party, or another party (2%).

 PC majority

If the election were held today, we project these results would see a PC majority government with 75 seats. The NDP would serve as opposition with 37, and the Liberals would serve as third party with 12.

 NDP leads as second choice

 About one-quarter (23%) say that they have the NDP as their second choice, with about one-fifth (19%) saying they would support the Greens.

 About one-sixth (14%) say the Liberals are their second choice, with about 1 in 10 (9%) saying the PCs.

 Few (3%) say another party would be their second choice, with a third (31%) saying they don’t have a second choice.


4 in 10 say they are least likely to support the Liberals


4 in 10 (41%) say the Liberals are the party they are least likely to vote for, with the Conservatives the least likely choice for a third (32%).

Few (6%) say the NDP, or the Greens (8%) are their least likely choice.

About 1 in 10 say no party is their least likely choice (12%).


Horwath approval highest


Kathleen Wynne’s approval remains low, with only one-fifth (20%) saying they approve, with almost three-quarters (71%) say they disapprove. 1 in 10 (10%) say they do not know. Her net favourable score is -51 (approve – disapprove)

Doug Ford sees approval from one-third (34%), and disapproval from half (49%). About one-sixth (17%) say they do not know. His net favourable score is -15.

Horwath’s approval is 4 in 10 (42%), with one-quarter (25%) saying they disapprove, and a third (33%) saying they do not know.


“The Conservatives are still leading, which is a great place to be on day one,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "But the NDP support has strengthened in the waning days of the province’s forty-first parliament. Their support isn’t strong enough to challenge Doug Ford’s lead yet…but it should be of concern to Ford and his team.”


Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.