PCs Lead
Volatile Electorate suggests almost
anything could happen on June 7
Toronto, May 30th
- In a random sampling of public opinion
taken by The Forum Poll™ among 2602 Ontario voters, amongst those decided and
leaning, 4 in 10 (39%) say they support the Progressive Conservatives. A third
(35%) say they are supporting the NDP, while one-fifth (19%) say they are
supporting the Ontario Liberal Party.
Few support
either the Green Party (5%) or another party (2%).
Conservatives
move into a majority
Based on these results, we project the
PCs to win a majority with 77 seats. The NDP would serve as official opposition
with 41 seats, and the Liberals would win 6 seats.
Horwath
Approval Steady, but disapproval up
Kathleen Wynne’s approval sits at one-quarter
(23%), up four points since our last poll (May 23: 19%), while her disapproval drops
four points (65%) (May 23: 69%). 1 in 10 say they do not know (12%). Her net
favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -42, an improvement of 8 since
May 23rd (-50)
Doug Ford’s approval sits at a third (30%),
similar to his approval when last we polled (May 23: 32%), with half still
(53%) saying they disapprove (May 23: 51%). About one-fifth (17%) say they do
not know. His net favourable score
(approve minus disapprove) is -23, worsening by four points since May 23rd
(-19)
Andrea Horwath’s approval sits at 4 in 10 (40%),
similar to her approval when we last polled (May 23: 43%), with a third (32%)
saying they disapprove, up six points (May 23: 26%). About one-quarter (28%)
say they do not know. Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is +8,
worsening by nine points since May 23rd (+17)
Horwath and Ford tied for best Premier
A third (30%) say
Andrea Horwath would make the best Premier, while a similar proportion (29%)
say this of Doug Ford.
Kathleen Wynne is
seen as best premier by one-sixth (16%), a similar proportion to those who say
none (17%). 1 in 10 (9%) say they do not know.
“As we enter the
final days of the campaign, it looks like things are just getting started,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research. "The NDP had the momentum but seem to have
stalled in the aftermath of a strong performance by Kathleen Wynne in the
debate. The PC numbers under Ford have rebounded and they now have him poised
for the Premier’s chair. The only thing that’s certain is that the future of
Ontario will be decided in the next seven days.”
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
