Forum Accurately Predicts New Brunswick Election
Only Forum correctly predicted the New Brunswick minority
parliament
TORONTO, September 25th – The Forum
Poll successfully predicted the outcome of the New Brunswick provincial
election. Forum’s Interactive Voice Response (IVR) polling methodology proves
itself again to be an effective tool for measuring public opinion, accurately
predicting a minority parliament, despite a solid Liberal lead in voter
intention.
Forum offered another accurate seat
projection, and once again, it was more than twice as accurate as the next
closest prediction. Forum’s projection only deviated from the actual results by
fewer than one seat (.66); the next nearest seat projection was a deviation of
2 seats.
Forum’s vote prediction was the third most
accurate, well within its projected margin of error (1.9), behind only CBC’s
poll aggregator (1.3) and Nanos (1.5).
IVR has proven itself once again as a very
precise tool for measuring public opinion.
“Forum’s ability to draw conclusions from data is second to none in our
industry,” said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. “Understanding what the numbers say,
and, what they don’t say, is fundamental to providing accurate insights. It
isn’t always easy; but it’s what we do best. That’s why our projection modeling
successfully predicted a minority parliament.”
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and
founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
or at (416) 960-9603.
