It’s Close in Newfoundland and Labrador

It’s Close in Newfoundland and Labrador 

Toronto, May 8^th , 2019 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 856 Newfoundland and Labrador voters, amongst those decided and leaning, 4 in 10 (40%) say they would support the Liberals, another 4 in 10 say they should support the Progressive Conservatives (42%), a tenth (13%) would support the NDP, and a few support (6%) other parties. 

Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those aged 25 and under (48%), females (44%), earning $80,000 to $100,000 (47%), and living in Labrador (47%) and Corner Brook and Western Newfoundland (45%). 

Respondents most likely to support the PCs include those aged 35-44 (52%), males (49%), earning $20,000 to $40,000 (45%), $40,000-$60,000 (43%) and $80,000 to $100,000 (46%), and living in Grand Falls-Windsor and Central Newfoundland (48%). 

Respondents most likely to support the NDP include those aged 25 and under (31%), females (15%), and earning less than $20,000 (18%). 

If an election were held today, these results suggest a minority parliament: the Progressive Conservatives would win 19 seats, the Liberals would secure 18 seats, and the NDP would  win 3 seats. 

Crosbie and Ball tied for who would make best Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador 

Just over a quarter (29%) say Ches Crosbie would make the best Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador regardless of which party they would vote for. About a quarter (28%) say Dwight Ball would make the best Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador. About a tenth (14%) say Alison Coffin, 2-in-10 (18%) say none of these, and another tenth (11%) don’t know who would make the best Premier.

Two-thirds disapprove of the job Dwight Ball is doing as Premier 

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Dwight Ball is doing as Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, 6 in 10 (63%) disapprove and almost 4 in 10 (37%) approve. Ball’s net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -26. 

Over half disapprove of the job Ches Crosbie is doing as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party 

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Ches Crosbie is doing as the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, over half (55%) disapprove and 4 in 10 (45%) approve. Crosbie’s net favourable score is -10. 

Half disapprove of the job Alison Coffin is doing as leader of the NDP 

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Alison Coffin is doing as leader of the NDP in Newfoundland and Labrador, half (52%) disapprove and almost half (48%) approve. Coffin’s net favourable score is -4. 

Is Newfoundland and Labrador better or worse than in 2015? 

When asked if Newfoundland and Labrador is doing better or worse than it was 4 years ago, over 6 in 10 (BTM2: 66%) say it is worse, with 4 in 10 (42%) saying it is “much worse”. 

A third (TOP2: 34%) say Newfoundland and Labrador is doing better than 4 years ago, but about a tenth (9%) saying it is doing “much better” than 4 years ago.

4 in 10 don’t think there was a winner in the leaders’ debate 

When respondents were asked if they watched or heard something about the leaders’ debate, half (50%) watched the leaders’ debate, a third (30%) said they heard about the debate, and 2 in 10 (20%) didn’t see or hear anything about the debate.   

4 in 10 respondents (40%) who watched or heard something about the debate think there was no winner, 2 in 10 (20%) say Crosbie won, one-quarter say Ball won (25%), and one-sixth (15%) say Coffin won. 

 

“The Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives are a hair’s breadth apart, and with just over a week to go, it’s looking like the election could go either way,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “What will be fascinating to watch is how the NDP will factor into the final results, as even just a few seats for the third party could mean the difference between a majority and a minority government.”