NDP
maintains lead in Ontario
Strong NDP minority government if vote held today
TORONTO July 8th,
2015 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 678 Ontario
voters, more than one third will vote NDP if a provincial election were held
today (35%), while just fewer would vote PC (32%). The provincial Liberals
would be the choice of just more than one quarter (26%). These findings
represent relative stability since the last time we polled Ontario (May 12, NDP
- 36%, PC - 33%, Liberal - 24%).
NDP minority seen
If
these results are projected up to a 107 seat Legislature, the NDP would capture
a minority of 45, 9 fewer than required for a majority, while the PCs would
take 35 seats and the Liberals 27.
Horwath most popular leader, Patrick Brown least popular
Andrea
Horwath has the approval of close to 4-in-10 voters (38%), while her net
favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a neutral to positive +6. About
3-in-10 approve of the Premier (29%) and her net is a very negative -31. While
just one fifth approve of Patrick Brown (19%), most don’t know him (53%) so his
net score is a relatively modest -10.
Three leaders tied for best premier
In
a reflection of our findings in May, all three party leaders are tied for who
would make the best premier, with Kathleen Wynne and Patrick Brown at just over
one fifth (21% each) and Andrea Horwath at one fifth (20%). A similar
proportion think none of them is up to the task (23%), and just fewer don’t
have an opinion (15%).
“Whether this a reflection of the NDP victory in Alberta, or
Tom Mulcair’s new prominence as the darling of the national electorate, it is
clear the NDP have established a winning beach head in Ontario, and it isn’t
going away soon," said Forum Research President,
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
