Former 2018 swing ridings expected to go to PCs and Liberals

| Filed under: Ontario, Toronto
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Toronto, May 16th, 2022 – A random sampling of public opinion was taken by The Forum Poll™ from May 13th to 15th in eight ridings that were swing ridings in the 2018 Ontario election. Approximately 200 eligible voters were surveyed per riding.

Amongst those decided and leaning, current seat projections suggest PCs are on track to secure three new seats, all from the NDP, and maintain one current seat. The Liberals are expected to claim two seats from the Conservatives and maintain two seats. None of the eight swing ridings are expected to go to the NDP.

Brampton Centre- Toss up: NDP leaning to Conservative

In a tight race, NDP incumbent Sarah Singh is behind Conservative candidate Charmaine Williams by a small margin, with Singh expected to take 35% of the vote and Williams to take 39%.

Brampton North- NDP to Conservative

Conservative candidate Graham McGregor is expected to take Brampton North with 40% of the vote, with the runner up being Liberal candidate Harinder Malhi (30%).

Brampton West- Toss up: Conservative leaning to Liberal

In a tight race, Conservative incumbent Amarjot Sandhu is behind Liberal candidate Rimmy Jhajj by a small margin, with Sandhu expected to take 39% of the vote and Jhajj to take 41%.

Don Valley West- Remains Liberal

Kathleen Wynne’s former riding is expected to remain Liberal, as Stephanie Bowman is expected to win by a strong margin with 46% of the vote. Mark Saunders-Conservative candidate and former Toronto Chief of Police- is expected to be the runner up, with 32% of the vote.

Eglington-Lawrence- Conservative to Liberal

Conservative incumbent Robin Martin is expected to lose to Liberal candidate Arlena Hebert by a substantial margin, with Martin expected to take 26% of the vote and Hebert expected to take 61%.

Scarborough-Guildwood- Remains Liberal

Liberal incumbent Mitzie Hunter is expected to hold on to this riding with a strong lead, with 47% of the vote. Conservative candidate Alicia Vianga is expected to be the runner up, with 33% of the vote.

Scarborough- Rouge Park- Remains Conservative

Conservative incumbent Vijay Thanigasalam is expected hold on to this riding with a strong lead, with 41% of the vote. Liberal candidate Manal Abdullahi is expected to be the runner up, with 29% of the vote.

York South-Weston- NDP to Conservative

NDP incumbent Faisal Hassan is expected to lose to Conservative candidate and Ford family member Michael Ford by a large margin. Ford is expected to take 44% of the vote, with the runner up being Liberal candidate Nadia Guerrera (27%).


The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of randomly selected eligible voters across Ontario. The poll was conducted on May 13th to 15th, 2022. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 7% for a sample of 200 and +/- 9% for a sample of 100, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate.  Margins of error for subsample and regional results are available at

This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at one point in time. The poll was sponsored by Forum Research Inc. as a public service. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms.

Forum Research follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: