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Progressive Conservatives projected to win the Ontario
provincial election
Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives on track for a third
term
Toronto, February 26th
– In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1,013 Ontario voters ahead of the February 27th
provincial election, 40.6% of those who are decided or leaning are likely to
vote for the Progressive Conservatives, 31.8% are likely to vote for the Liberal
Party, while 19.9% are likely to vote for the New Democratic Party. Voter
support is low for the Green party (5.1%) and other parties (2.6%).
Premier’s
job approval rating
When asked whether
they approve or disapprove of the job Doug Ford is doing as premier, 30.9% of
respondents said they approved. The approval rating provides insight into how
voters perceive the government’s performance heading into the election.
PCs poised
for majority with 71 seats; Liberals trail with 27, NDP with 24
We project 71 seats for the PCs,
27 seats for the Liberals, 24 seats for the NDP, 1 seat for the Green party and
1 seat for another party. A party must win at least 63 seats to form a majority
government.
“The Progressive Conservatives
under Doug Ford are set to win a third consecutive majority government,” said Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Current projections show the PCs
are on track for another majority”.
The poll was
conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice
response telephone survey of 1,013 randomly selected Ontario residents over the
age of 18, 80.2% by cellphone and 19.8% on landlines. The poll was conducted on February 26, 2025. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate
+/- 4.0%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less
accurate. Margins of error for subsample and regional results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.
This research is
not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at
one point in time. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100%
Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research
firms. Forum Research follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and
Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
