Federal Conservatives rebound
Tied with NDP, but headed for a minority
TORONTO
July 29th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by
the Forum Poll among 1397 Canadian voters, equal proportions, a third each,
will vote for the federal Conservatives or the NDP if the election were held
today (33% each). One quarter will vote Liberal (25%). Few will vote Bloc
Quebecois or Green (4% each) or for any other party (1%). These results
represent a sharp increase for the Conservatives since last week (July 21 -
28%) and an equally sharp decrease for the Liberals (from 29%). The NDP sees
stasis (33% last week).
Conservatives now lead in vote-rich
Ontario
In
Ontario, the Conservatives now lead (37%) the NDP (31%) and Liberals (27%)
where once the parties were tied. In Quebec, the NDP lead (36%), ahead of the
Liberals (24%). Fewer will vote Conservative (19%) or for the Bloc (17%). In
BC, the NDP (38%) are tied with the Conservatives (36%) and the Liberals trail
(19%). The Liberals lead in their traditional stronghold in Atlantic Canada
(38%), while the NDP (31%) and the Conservatives (28%) vie for second. In
Alberta, the Conservatives dominate with half the vote (49%), while the NDP is
second (30%) and the Liberals trail (16%). In the Prairie Provinces, the
Conservatives have a slight lead on the NDP (39% to 33%), while the Liberals
trail (24%).
One third of past Liberals voting NDP
this time
Of
note, more than a third of those who voted Liberal in 2011 will vote NDP this
time (35%). About 1-in-6 past New Democrats will vote Liberal this time (14%),
and about one tenth of past Conservatives will desert their party for the
Liberals (11%) or the NDP (10%). The Conservative and NDP votes are relatively
equally “sticky” (past voters will vote again - 77% and 72%, respectively),
while the Liberal vote is not (55%). Furthermore, fully three quarters of
Conservative voters say they are “strong supporters” of that party (74%), while
just one third of Liberals (62%) and just more than one half of New Democrats
(55%) say this.
TV ads and UCCB cheques make little
difference
Those
who have been exposed to the Conservative Party “Justin Trudeau’s Resumé” TV ad
are more likely to vote Conservative (34%) than are those who haven’t seen it
(29%). On the other hand, those who received a UCCB cheque are slightly less
likely to vote Conservative (31%) than those who have not (34%).
Conservatives advantage in seat
distribution to lead to minority government
If
these results are projected up to a 338 seat House of Commons, the
Conservatives would take a healthy minority of 156, 14 fewer than required for
a majority. The NDP would capture 122 seats, and the Liberals would hold the
balance of power with 58 seats. The Greens and the Bloquistes would each seat
one member.
Leader Approvals stable
Prime
Minister Harper has the approval of one third (32%) and his net favourable
score (approve minus disapprove) is a very negative (but stable) -27. One half
the electorate approve of Tom Mulcair (49%), and his net is a very positive
+20. Justin Trudeau’s approval is down slightly (from 38% to 35%) and his net
favourability is an increasingly negative -12 (-6 last week and -3 the week
before).
Conservatives increase their expectation
of victory
While
the Conservatives and the NDP were tied in who was expected to win the election
last week (30% and 29%, respectively), the Conservatives clearly lead this week
(34% to 29%). The Liberals are not seen to be competitive (18%) on this
predictive measure.
Harper and Mulcair now tied for best PM
Where
Tom Mulcair led on this measure last week (29% to Harper’s 25%), the two
leaders are tied this week (30% and 29%, respectively). One fifth sees Justin
Trudeau as the man for the job (19%) and few pick Elizabeth May or Gilles
Duceppe (6% and 4%, respectively). One tenth think none of the leaders would
make a good Prime Minister (8%).
"It’s clear the Conservatives
have gained favour in the last week, and much of it can be ascribed to the orgy
of handouts, beginning with the UCCB cheques, that’s started. Curiously,
recipients of these cheques are less likely than parents in general to vote
Conservative. It may be the idea is more persuasive than the reality,"
said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and
founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
or at (416) 960-9603.
