PCs pull into lead with NDP in Ontario
Razor thin PC majority if election held today
TORONTO August
11th, 2015 -In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum
Poll™ among 1001 Ontario voters, more than one third would vote for the
Progressive Conservatives if the provincial election were held today (35%),
while one third would vote NDP (33%). This is a statistical tie at this sample
size. The Liberals would place third, with about one quarter of the vote (26%),
and few would vote Green (4%) or for another party (1%). This stands in
contrast with our last Ontario poll, where the NDP had
the lead (July 8 - 35%) and the PCs were in second (32%).The Liberal vote share
has not changed (26% then and now).
The PC vote is common to mid age groups (45 to 54 - 43%),
males (44%), the least wealthy (45%) and the least educated (44%). The PC vote
is stronger in the 905 belt surrounding Toronto (40%) than elsewhere in the
province. The NDP vote is characteristic of the youngest (47%) and the wealthy
($80K to $100K - 48%). The Liberal vote is common to the oldest (29%), the best
educated (38%) and the wealthiest (35%). Among PC voters, two thirds are strong
supporters of the party (68%), while just more than half of Liberals (54%) or
New Democrats (53%) are similarly committed.
One seat PC majority seen
If these results are projected up to the 107 seat Ontario
Legislature, the PCs would take a one seat majority of 54 seats, to 34 for the
NDP. The Liberals would take just 19 seats in this scenario.
Leader approvals hold steady
Andrea Horwath is the most popular leader and has the
approval of close to 4-in-10 voters (38%). Her net favourable score (approve
minus disapprove) is a relatively positive +5. The Premier has the approval of
3-in-10 voters, (30%) but her net is a dismal -30. Patrick Brown has the
approval of just one fifth (21%) but as many as half don’t know him (48%) and
his net is a relatively benign -9. These approval ratings have not shifted
since last month.
Leaders close to tie for best Premier
Relatively equal proportions think each leader would make
the best Premier, led by Patrick Brown (23%), then Kathleen Wynne (22%) then
Andrea Horwath (20%). A similar proportion says none would be good at the job
(19%) or doesn’t know (17%).
“It’s not uncommon for governments to suffer poor ratings
mid-mandate, but the Premier must be glad the next election isn’t for 3 years.
What’s interesting is that the PCs, who did not originally see a bounce when
Patrick Brown was elected leader, may be seeing it now, even though he is not
personally that popular yet,"said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
