Majority government in the cards
TORONTO MAY 20th, 2014 - In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1136 Ontario voters
on the evening after the May long weekend, just more than 4-in-10 will vote
Liberal (41%), compared to one third who will vote Progressive Conservative
(34%). This represents a widening of the lead for the Liberals since we polled
last week (May 13 - Liberals 38%, PCs 35%). The NDP are supported by one fifth
of voters (20%), and few will vote Green (4%) or for any other party (1%). The
Liberal vote is common to females (46%), mid income groups ($60K to $80K - 48%)
and the Toronto 416 area code (51%). The PC vote is characteristic of the
oldest (40%), males (40%), lower income groups ($20K to $40K - 42%) and in
eastern Ontario (41%). The New Democrat vote is common to Generation Y (35 to
44 - 29%), the least wealthy (34%) and in southwestern (26%) and northern
Ontario (47%). Of note, one third of past New Democrats will vote Liberal this
time (32%), while one tenth of past Liberals will vote PC (13%) or NDP (11%)
this time.
Wide Liberal majority seen
If these results are
projected up to seats in a 107 seat Legislature, the Liberals would take an 8
seat majority of 63 seats, to 31 for the PCs. The NDP would take just 13 seats.
Liberals are second choice of New Democrats
Among NDP voters, 4-in-10
would pick the Liberals second (40%), while more than half of Liberal voters
would pick the NDP second (57%). Few would select the PCs second (17% and 11%,
respectively). The Green Party is a popular second choice for New Democrats, as
it is for PCs (24% each).
Leaders' favourables stable, Wynne most popular
Kathleen Wynne has the
approval of close to 4-in-10 (38%) and this is stable since last week (38%).
Her net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) is -8, up from -12 last
week. Andrea Horwath has the approval of just more than a third, this week and
last (35% each), and her net is -5, up slightly from -8 last week. Tim Hudak has
approval from one quarter (25%, from 23% last week), and his net is an abysmal
-34, similar to the -36 registered last week.
Kathleen Wynne increases her lead as best Premier
Just more than one third now
thinks Kathleen Wynne will make the best Premier (34%, up slightly from 32%
last week and 28% the week before), while fewer than a quarter pick Tim Hudak
in this role (22%, stable from last week) and even fewer pick Andrea Horwath
(17%, up slightly from 15%). Close to one fifth think none is right for the job
(17%), and one tenth don't have an opinion (10%).
May Long Weekend gives voters time to reflect
“It
may be that the May long weekend gave Ontario families a chance to meet and
reflect on the upcoming election, firming up their intentions while they talked.
There certainly appears to be a new wind in Kathleen Wynne's sails,"
said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and
founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
