But Liberal minority government seen
TORONTO MAY 3rd,
2014 - In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1845 Ontario
voters on the day after Premier Kathleen Wynne announced there would be a
provincial election on June 12, just less than 4-in-10 will vote PC (38%),
compared to one third who will vote Liberal (33%). One fifth will vote NDP
(22%) and few will vote Green (6%) or any other party (1%). These findings
represent stability since the last time we polled, before the election was
called (April 7, Liberals - 31%, PCs - 38%, NDP - 23%). The Liberals have a
lead in Toronto 416 area code, but trail everywhere else in the province. The
PC vote is the most loyal, in that more past PC voters will vote their party
again (86%) than will past Liberals (66%) or New Democrats (65%).
The PC vote is
common to mid-income groups ($60K to $80K - 51%), in southwestern Ontario
(44%). The Liberal vote is characteristic of the oldest (37%), the wealthiest
(37%) and those in Toronto (44%). The NDP vote is highest among Gen Y (35 to 44
- 27%), the least wealthy and mid-income groups (less than $20K - 28%, $40K to
$60K - 31%).
Liberal minority government in the cards
Despite their lead in the
popular vote, if these results are projected up to seats in a 107 seat
legislature, the Liberals would capture 49, for a 6 seat minority, while the
PCs would take 45 and the NDP just 13. This represents an increase from 45
seats last month for the Liberals, and a decrease from 49 seats for the PCs.
The NDP are stable from 13 seats last month.
No one picks PCs as second choice
Less than one tenth say the
PCs would be their second choice (9%), compared to about one eighth who mention
the Liberals (16%) or 3-in-10 the NDP in this respect (29%). The Greens are the
second choice of another one fifth (17%). PCs are more likely to select
the NDP second 33%) than the Liberals (16%) or Greens (13%), while Liberals
choose the NDP (47%) or Greens (16%) second. New Democrats will choose Liberals
(38%) or Greens (30%) second. A substantial minority, however, will vote PC
second to the NDP (15%).
Horwath favourables down; Wynne, Hudak
flat
Just more than one third
approve of Kathleen Wynne (34%), stable from last month (34%), and her net
favourable (approve minus disapprove) is stable from -15 last month to -17 today. Tim Hudak has the
approval of just more than a quarter (26%), stable since last month (27%), but
his net remains a very negative -25. Andrea Horwath has the same approvals as
Kathleen Wynne (36%, down from 40%), but her net has tumbled (-5, down from
+6).
Wynne now more likely to be seen as best
Premier
Kathleen Wynne is clearly the
leader for best Premier (28%, up from 26% last month), compared to Tim Hudak
(22% now and 24% last month) or, especially, Andrea Horwath (15% now and last
month). One quarter think none of these would be a good premier (22%).
Wynne seen to have best plan for transit
Kathleen Wynne is more likely
(26%) to be seen as having the best plan for transit and transportation,
compared to Tim Hudak (17%) or Andrea Horwath (12%). The premier leads on this
measure in every region.
Majority approve of NDP decision to
bring down government
More than one half of Ontario
voters (56%) agree with Andrea Horwath's decision not to support the Liberal
budget, while one third disapprove (33%) and one tenth don't know (12%).
Eight-in-ten PCs (83%) and 7-in-10 New Democrats (70%) approve of this
decision, while as many as one fifth of Liberals do too (17%). Close to one
fifth of PCs and New Democrats, however, do not approve (14% and 20%,
respectively).
One half hold Liberal government
responsible for election
One half of voters hold the
Liberals responsible for the coming election (47%), while just one quarter
blame the NDP (26%) and less than half this proportion blame the PCs (10%).
Most PCs hold the Liberals responsible (76%), while Liberals blame both the NDP
(53%) and, to a lesser extent, the PCs (17%). New Democrats hold the Liberals
responsible (55%), but also recognize their own role (22% blame NDP).
“It's clear that Kathleen Wynne outpolls her party, while
Hudak underperforms his party considerably. Wynne is liked and admired, and thought
to make the best premier, but she can't rise above the Liberal legacy. On the
other hand Andrea Horwath, who outpolls her party even more than Wynne does,
just can't get the NDP into the Ontario voters' decision set," said Forum Research President, Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
