Liberals to form government in Ontario

| Filed under: Ontario

Set to win slim majority

TORONTO JUNE 11th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1054 Ontario voters on the night before the provincial election, more than 4-in-10 voters will support the Liberals (41%), compared to just more than a third who will support the PCs (35%), and this has not changed since we last polled (June 9, Liberals - 42%, PCs - 35%). The NDP will take one fifth of the vote (20%), few will vote Green (3%) or for other parties (1%) and these results have not changed since the last poll.

The Liberal vote is common to younger groups (35 to 44 - 45%), females (45%), the wealthiest (47%) in the Toronto 416 area code (53%). PC support is characterized by the oldest (41%), males (43%), in mid income brackets ($40K to $60K - 43%) and in Southwestern Ontario (42%). The NDP's support is highest among younger groups (35 to 44 - 24%), females (24%), the least wealthy (34%) in Southwestern and Northern Ontario (24% each).

Notably, one third of those who voted NDP in the provincial election in 2011 will vote Liberal this time around (32%), and just more than half will vote NDP again (57%).

Liberal majority seen

If these results are projected up to seats in a 107 seat Legislature, the Liberals would take a two seat majority of 57 (stable from 57 last week), while the PCs would capture 37 (down from 39). The NDP would take just 13 seats.

Kathleen Wynne continues to lead as best Premier

More than a third consider Kathleen Wynne the best choice for Premier (37%), similar to the last time we polled (39%). In comparison, just more than a quarter select Tim Hudak (26%, down slightly from 29%). One fifth opt for Andrea Horwath on this measure (18%, well up from 12% last time).

This has been a very tight race between the Liberals and the official opposition, but it appears to be shaking out in the Grits' favour. They have an opportunity to form a majority government if these results hold up tomorrow," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.