Chow, Tory top voter preference; Rob,
Doug Ford, Norm Kelly not so much
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 923 Toronto
voters, Olivia Chow and John Tory lead in the polls, Rob Ford falls back and
Norm Kelly and Doug Ford fail to impress. At the same time, in his absence from
city hall, Rob Ford's approval rating is down sharply to a historic low.
Chow leads, Tory in 2nd
a five way race in which the mayor contends, along with other leading
candidates, Olivia Chow wins with more than a third of the vote (36%) to just
more than a quarter for John Tory (27%). One quarter will vote for Rob Ford
(24%) and neither Karen Stintz nor David Soknacki contends (3% each).
the same race, where the mayor is replaced by his brother Doug, outcomes are
similar, and Chow wins with more than a third of the vote (37%), Tory places
second (26%) and the mayor's brother takes one fifth (20%). Stintz and Soknacki
are not in the field (4% each).
a four way race in which neither of the Ford brothers runs, Olivia Chow takes
close to 4-in-10 votes (39%), to just fewer for John Tory (36%), while Stintz
(6%) and Soknacki (4%) trail.
a similar race with the addition of Deputy Mayor Norm Kelly, Chow takes 4-in-10
votes (40%) to one third for Tory (33%) and Kelly (4%), Stintz (5%) and
Soknacki (4%) don't contend. In this case, it is clear Kelly's support comes
from Tory's voters.
a straight three way race between the major contenders, Chow takes more than a
third (36%) to 3-in-10 for Tory (31%) and just more than a quarter for Rob Ford
a similar race where Doug replaces Rob, Chow grows her vote to 4-in-10 (40%),
while Tory's stays at 3-in-10 (31%). Doug Ford takes just a fifth (20%).
Ford with lowest approval polled, Tory
Tory enjoys the approval of more than two thirds of Toronto voters (68%), while
approval is also high for Olivia Chow (59%). One half approve of David
Soknacki, Norm Kelly (50% each) and Karen Stintz (49%). On the other hand, just
one third now approve of Rob Ford (32%), the lowest we have ever recorded for
the mayor, and even fewer approve of his brother Doug (30%).
Ford Nation down to one quarter of
one quarter of voters will now vote for Rob Ford in the municipal election
(with no other candidates named - 25%) and this is stable since the last time
we polled (May 2 - 25%).
Mayor should resign - two thirds
thirds of voters think Rob Ford should resign as mayor (63%), and this has not
changed since the beginning of the month (63%).
“We haven't seen approvals this low for the mayor since he
was elected four years ago, and all it took was to for him to disappear for two
weeks. In this case, absence didn't make the heart grow fonder. It's clear John
Tory benefits from a Ford absence, but if Norm Kelly ran, he would limit that
advantage," said Forum Research President,
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at email@example.com or at (416)