High profile newcomers advance in 2 wards
TORONTO September
9th, 2014 - In
a series of random samplings of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ in
selected Toronto wards, two of the three incumbents tested were relatively safe
in their wards, while both the high profile newcomers were in the lead in wards
where there was no incumbent.
Ward 2, Etobicoke North
Among
the 396 voters polled, newcomer and Ford family member Mike Ford leads
challenger Andray Domise in this ward 50% to 30%, and this is a change from 43%
to 24%, noted on July 24. Opinion is firming up in this ward, as the proportion
picking "someone else" has declined (from 17% to 10%), as has the
proportion who are undecided (from 15% to 10%). Provincial PCs favour Ford
(57%) over Domise (23%) but provincial Liberals are more mixed in their support
(34% and 39%, respectively).
Mike
Ford's awareness has increased (from 63% to 73%) but his approval has stayed at
one half of those aware (51% now, 52% on July 24). Andray Domise has seen his
awareness increase (from 26% to 40%), and his approval has also increased from
about one half to two thirds now (62%).
Ward 7, York West
Among
the 214 voters polled here, incumbent Giorgio Mammolitti (37%) and his main
competitor, Nick DiNizio (33%) are essentially tied, as they were in July (29%
to 27%), and Keegan Henry Mathieu does not contend (9% then, 5% now). One tenth
will vote for someone else (12%, stable from 11% in July) or are undecided
(12%, reduced in half from 24%).
While
awareness of Mammolitti is very high (85% now, 77% in July), just one half
approve of him (50% now, 41% in July). Just one third are aware of DiNizio
(37%, up from 30%), but his approval is higher at more than two thirds (69%,
stable from 72%). Henry Mathieu's awareness and approval are both low (17% and
26%, respectively). Provincial PCs are mixed in their support (Mammolitti - 37%,
DiNizio - 31%, caution: small base size) but Liberals prefer Mammolitti (44% to
22%, respectively).
Ward 20, Trinity-Spadina
Among
292 voters, Joe Cressy leads in this ward with half the vote (47%) and none of
the other candidates listed breaks double digits (Sarah Thomson - 7%, Mike Yen,
Reg Hartt, Anshul Kapoor - 3% each, Nick Wight - 2%). One tenth will vote for
someone else (11%) and twice this proportion are undecided (24%). Cressy is
strongly favoured by both provincial New Democrats and Liberals.
Three
quarters are aware of Cressy (73%) and just fewer approve of him (71%).
Awareness and approval of the other candidates listed is low. The exception is
Sarah Thomson, a fresh entrant in the race, who is known to three quarters
(75%) but is not approved by many (21%).
Ward 30, Toronto-Danforth
More
than half the 407 voters polled in this ward will vote for incumbent Paula
Fletcher (56%), compared to fewer than one fifth who will vote for either of her
main competitors, Liz West (18%) or Jane Farrow (13%). Very few will vote for
someone else (6%) or are undecided (7%).
Awareness
of Fletcher is almost universal (93%), and approval is high in this group
(68%). One half are aware of Liz West (53%) and one half of those aware approve
of her (53%). Awareness for Jane Farrow is lower (38%) but approval is very
high (72%). Provincial PCs prefer Liz West to Paula Fletcher (53% to 30% -
caution: small base size). Liberals and New Democrats strongly prefer Fletcher
(50% and 81%, respectively).
Ward 32, Beaches-East York
Among
the 496 polled voters, incumbent Mary-Margaret McMahon has a lock on this ward
(60%), and former councillor Sandra Bussin is shut out (21%). Few will vote for
someone else (7%) or are undecided (11%). This is in comparison to September
2013, when McMahon posted a similar vote share (57%) and Bussin's was somewhat
lower (13%). At that early date, fully one quarter said they would vote for
someone else (24%), but very few were undecided (5%).
McMahon's
awareness is very high (90%), as is her approval (68%). Sandra Bussin, although
well known (86% aware) is not well-approved (33% approval). Voters of all
political persuasions strongly prefer McMahon to Bussin, but Bussin scores her
highest points with provincial New Democrats (33%).
“Incumbency is so important in municipal politics, where
there are no parties, leaders or platforms. The name on the lawn sign that's
best known is going to win. In Ward 2, that's a Ford, any Ford. In Ward 7 and
Ward 32, however, the best known candidates (an incumbent and a former
incumbent) may be in trouble," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
